July 01, 2019

UN confirms that Iran has breached 2015 nuclear agreement
Iran has carried out its threat to breach the nuclear 2015 agreement by exceeding limits on its enriched uranium stockpile, a move that brings the frayed international agreement a step closer to collapse.  Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, said his country had exceed a 300kg limit on its enriched uranium stockpile in a deliberate violation of the nuclear deal. "Iran has crossed the 300kg limit based on its plan,"Mr Zarif said. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, confirmed on Monday afternoon that Iran had violated the agreement. Iran’s government announced last month that it would start breaching parts of the deal in protest at US sanctions on Iran’s economy and Europe’s lack of action to ease the impact of the sanctions.  While exceeding the 300kg limit on low-grade uranium is only a minor step towards a potential nuclear weapon, Tehran has threatened a more serious breach on July 8 by resuming enrichment of higher-grade uranium.    Iran’s policy of ever more serious breaches presents Britain, France, and Germany - the European states who have defended the nuclear agreement - with a stark choice.  Iran has announced it will carry out a more serious breach of the deal next week. Credit: AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File They can reimpose sanctions on Tehran, and risk destroying the nuclear deal altogether, or hold off on sanctions and try to convince Iran to reverse course and come back into compliance with agreement.     There was no immediate response from the Foreign Office or the EU to Iran’s violation of the stockpile limit. The US pulled out of the nuclear agreement in 2018 and European diplomats now fear that Iran is on course to pull out, effectively killing the deal and increasing the chances of war.  Iran said Monday that it was prepared to go back to complying with the deal if the European powers can deliver the economic benefits that Tehran was promised during the 2015 negotiations. But the European powers have so far struggled to find ways to convince Iran to stay in the agreement. Their main effort has been focused on a financial mechanism known as Instex, which is designed to circumvent US sanctions and allow European firms to trade with Iran.  The mechanism became operational this week but there is so far little sign that it will succeed in providing the kind of broad economic relief that Tehran is demanding.    Eric Brewer, a fellow at Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said the Iranian move was designed to increase pressure on the European states to act.  “The chances of Europe or other countries taking the type of steps Iran is asking for are slim. So Iran will have some big decisions to make about how far it’s willing to take its nuclear escalation,” he said.   “Decisions in the coming weeks will be hugely important to determining whether we’re on a path to further escalation, or whether it’s possible to seize an off ramp.” Iran promised as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement that it would not store more than 300kg of uranium enriched to the low level of 3.6 per cent fissile material.  Iran has warned it will carry out a more serious breach of the agreement on July 8 when it will resume enriching the kind of high-grade uranium that could eventually be used for a nuclear weapon.   In a rare public appearance, Yossi Cohen, Israel's spy chief, said “the world must now allow” Iran to stockpile high-level enriched uranium.  “Just imagine what will happen if the material stockpiled by the Iranians becomes fissionable, at military-enrichment grade, and then an actual bomb. The Middle East, and then the entire world, will be a different place,” he said.  Israel came close to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2011 but held off partly because of Barack Obama’s opposition to military action against Iran.  Donald Trump has taken a tougher line against Iran and has been more supportive of Israeli military action. However, he has said several times that he is reluctant to engage in a war with Iran and hopes to one day resume negotiations.  Iran has said it will not negotiate with the US under the pressure of sanctions.



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