When Simon Clarke called for Rishi Sunak to go at the beginning of the year , it failed to take off. The reason Clarke’s attempt stalled is that no MPs joined in – including the right of the party. The most helpful intervention was Priti Patel’s. The former home secretary is not a close Sunak ally – she previously voted against Sunak’s Windsor Framework (his renegotiation of the Northern
Ireland protocol. Yet she rowed in behind the Prime Minister, taking to
Social Media to accuse Clarke of “engaging in facile and divisive self indulgence”. But in a week where not one but two MRP polls suggest the party is on course for a wipe-out , Tory MPs are once again indulging in who is best placed to lead the Tory party. The time to change leader is still viewed as more likely than not after the general election. But the party is braced for – in the words of one Tory staffer – a “mental May” with the local
elections marking a danger point. As one government aide puts it: “Logic would state that Rishi stays in place but never underestimate the madness of Tory MPs.” But whenever the date comes for a leadership contest, there is now a new frontrunner being talked of: Priti Patel. It wasn’t so long ago that Patel was talked of as a politician of the past. In 2020, she was the under-siege home secretary faced bullying allegations that led a senior mandarin – Sir Alex Aitken – to quit when the then prime minister
Boris Johnson overruled his conclusion that she had breached the ministerial code. Patel fought on and launched the Rwanda scheme . Then when Johnson was forced out and Liz Truss took over, Patel resigned as home secretary aware that Truss planned to bring in Braverman in her place. Since then, she has remained on the backbench intervening on policy issues she cares about (she recently co-signed a letter to the Guardian on the dangers of politicising extremism). But now her time out of government is started to look quite attractive to MPs. With MPs fearing that Sunak’s government has entered a doom loop, those seen to be too closely involved with the project could have that marked against them in a future contest. At the same time, those who are viewed to have been a little too disruptive to Sunak’s government could be blamed for playing their own role in the dreadful polling. “What comes up the most in focus groups as the reason voters don’t want to vote Tory is the infighting and psychodrama,” says a government aide. It means loud critics such as Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick could struggle to win support from the centre. It also means Patel’s skills are being reassessed in a new light. As one Tory figure puts it: “She’s the secret frontrunner. She is loyal to Boris and Liz and she hasn’t criticised Sunak.” While Patel and Truss were not viewed to be particularly close when Truss was in 10 Downing Street, allies of the duo say they have grown closer since. There were reports this week that Patel is now the preferred candidate for a post
election contest of PopCon , the Tory outfit that Truss helped launch earlier this year to push for free market conservatism. Truss used the launch to say it was time to fight for true conservatism rather than what would make a politician popular at a
London dinner party. However, Patel’s appeal goes beyond this group – which is why the idea is now being talked about more seriously in Tory circles. The former home secretary remains a close ally of Boris Johnson. It means Johnson loyalists rate her. Add the Trussites in, and the fact she is currently viewed to be one of the MPs on the right stopping the party from descending into another leadership contest and three quite important factions at the very least don’t see her as their worst bet. She also has the plus point of being one of the MPs (a limited pool) who according to recent MRP polls could hold on – even if her Essex constituency would become a marginal. Read Next Grant Shapps plotting unlikely Tory leadership bid In the most recent
Australian election, the result was bad enough that a few of the favourites to take over lost their seats. In the end, old timer Peter Dutton stepped in – an experienced politician on the right of the party who was still palatable to the different factions. It has gone better than many expected at the time – with Australian Labour’s Albanese taking a hit in the polls. Patel is often criticised for previously suggesting that the death penalty could be a deterrent. But in the years since she said that, a deputy chair (now in Reform) said he supported it and the party has moved to the right generally. It means even some in the One Nation group are reassessing. “She’s not my first choice but I’d take her over Suella,” one said. As another puts it: “I think Kemi is the obvious favourite right now but she might blow herself up in the campaign as she can be quite blunt. It can be the right thing but it does rub some colleagues up the wrong way.” Patel could also make the experience argument. That is the one allies of Grant Shapps make – that he could be the experienced figure to step in – but others are sceptical. “I just can’t see it,” says one MP. “I don’t think Grant has the backing of the party.” Experience will be of a particular need in the next parliament. It will be the end of the era. Even if
Labour only won a small majority, it would still mark the biggest change in the parliamentary party post war. Starmer’s team are already working on ways to train their candidates aware they could have a huge flock of green MPs to manage. Similarly the number of Tories stepping down – over 60 – means churn on the Tory side. A lot of muscle memory will go. It means while there might be a temptation for a completely fresh face, there will be an argument of a steady pair of hands to steer the ship – or whatever is left of it.