Now that both parties have chosen their presumptive nominees, the 2024 presidential campaign is off and running. Given the number of international crises and dangers at play, foreign policy should be atop the list of critical topics for debate. But barring a Pearl Harbor-like crisis, that will not be the if history is prologue. Regardless,
Democrats will
Donald Trump for asserting that he may
NATO and Ukraine, appease and impose crippling , principally on
China and Europe. How he will deal with
Iran and the war in is likely to involve spontaneous and not thoughtful reactions. Worse, Trump will forego traditional U.S. international leadership, retreating into an , MAGA sanctuary. will be no less harsh with President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, starting with the disastrous 2021 t from
Afghanistan. Biden will be eviscerated for inconsistency and weakness in not facing up to and its surrogates, especially the Houthis’s threat to block passage through the Red Sea. His aid to
Ukraine will be seen as excessive and without an exit . And his with
Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu will be another example of Biden’s anger dictating policy. But make no mistake. These sound bites and talking points are just that and do not consider the most critical factors and forces that will shape U.S. foreign policy after the
election. No matter who wins, if this
Congress does not pass or delays approving
MILITARY aid to Ukraine, its conditions will be , leaving the president-elect with no good options. Who controls either end of
Pennsylvania Avenue in January 2025 will be the most determinant factor. In the unlikely event that one party performs a hat trick and wins the White House, the
Senate and the House, the extreme left or right will affect policy considerations at home and abroad. That will not be good in either case. If one party wins only the
White House and loses both Houses of Congress, dysfunctionality will become permanent barring an unexpected event until 2028. If one party wins the White House and the Senate, that will at least allow some business, such as moving confirmations forward. If one party wins the presidency and only the House, gridlock is inevitable. The conclusion is that no outcome looks good for America’s governance. If Democrats win, the foreign policy will be rebuilding the middle class. That aim is as barren in content as the Gobi Desert. If Republicans win, will accelerate an
American international pullback with potentially dire consequences. Despite these somber prospects, with
elections less than eight months away, predictions about future foreign policies are as useless as explaining his powerlessness by ordering the ocean to recede. And, of course, much rests on the next president’s character, judgment and personality. If Trump wins, it is impossible to guess what his mood will mean for foreign policy. Trump has been the ultimate since his first days as a Democrat. He “ ” with North Korean leader
Kim Jong Un, whom he previously derided as “ ,” making his extraordinary meeting with the leader an embarrassment. One got whiplash watching how he declared NATO then forcing the alliance to spend more on defense and now declares that
Russia “can do whatever the hell they want,” to NATO countries that don’t meet spending goals. Once opposed to China’s control of , he now says any change in ownership is unnecessary. Trump declares he is strongly pro-military. Then he the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff he appointed a “traitor.” He belittled U.S. soldiers who died in combat as “ while cynically claiming during the Vietnam War. And he former Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) as a failure because he became a prisoner of war in that war. Biden has not seriously reevaluated his foreign policy to correct weaknesses and failures. Nor has he stated what he intends to do internationally if reelected. He must explain why he has not done so. Foreign policy is not the sole or most important issue facing Americans. Yet, both candidates refuse to assess objectively the international challenges, threats and dangers confronting the nation or propose effective responses and policies. Instead, sound bites and talking points continue to substitute for critical thinking. Voters beware.