September 28, 2020

Why a Biden blowout is still the most likely result
Five weeks out from the 2020 presidential election, significant media attention is being given to the small possibility that President Donald Trump could again pull off a narrow Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote, or that even an Electoral College tie could push the election to the House. Those scenarios, though, are mainly making headlines because they're interesting fodder for the pundit class. All the data point to a big blowout victory for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.The major recent polls (Economist/YouGov: Biden +7, CNBC: Biden +9, Quinnipiac: Biden +10, NYT: Biden +8) show Biden with a truly commanding lead nationally. Equally important is how Biden leads. The 2016 election was always a much closer and more dynamic race, Trump was facing a much more unpopular opponent, and a much larger number of voters were undecided. None of those are the case this time.This year we have experienced a global pandemic which has so far killed over 200,000 Americans, a massive economic disruption, multiple Trump Administration scandals, and the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Yet Biden's large lead over Trump is basically identical to what it was at the end of last year. There is still the possibility that some new development — even bigger than those listed above — could shift the dynamics of the race, but that seems very unlikely.Biden also polls much better than Hillary Clinton ever did in the late stages of the 2016 election cycle — largely because there are significantly fewer undecided and third-party voters. In the RealClearPolitics polling average of the four-way race, Clinton's share of the vote never went over 46.2 percent while, by comparison, Biden has been bouncing right around 50 percent for the past few months with 7 percent third-party/undecided. To realistically win, Trump would need to pick up almost all the undecided voters and even flip some Biden voters.In 2016, both candidates were unpopular. The final YouGov poll found Clinton with a favorable rating of 43 percent and 56 percent unfavorable, compared to Trump's rating of 39 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable. This gave the outsider Trump a chance to win over voters who disliked both candidates. By comparison, right now Biden's favorability numbers are 45 percent to 47 percent compared to Trump at 42 percent favorable and 53 unfavorable. In addition, 52 percent of voters disapprove of how Trump has handled his Job as president, while 57 percent of voters are upset or dissatisfied with Trump. Trump effectively needs to win over voters who dislike him, disapprove of his job performance, and are simply ambivalent about Biden.To be sure, in 2016, the very limited polling in certain critical swing states was off in important ways, and the final national polling undercounted Trump's support by roughly 1-2 points. Maybe there is another systematic undercounting of Trump's support in the polling this year, and maybe late-breaking events move voters towards him, and maybe a large share of voters who disapprove of Trump's job performance can be persuaded to vote against Biden — but that is a lot of maybes.It is just as likely that Biden will outperform his already big lead. elections tend to be referendums on incumbents, which is particularly true this year. Trump's polling numbers in head-to-head matchups with Biden have closely mirrored his overall job approval numbers. At the same time, Trump's job approval has been stuck in the low 40s effectively his entire time in office. Almost unique among modern presidents, he has never appealed to the majority of the country and has basically never tried. There really is no precedent for a chronically unpopular president who never tried to reach out beyond his base.If the final election results follow this job approval pattern, Biden wins in a landslide even larger than his current polling lead. Winning by such a large margin would swamp Trump's modest advantage in the Electoral College.More stories from theweek.com Trump literally can't afford to lose the election Trump avoids tax return questions as he brings yet another truck to the White House The bigger truth revealed by Trump's taxes
Related Stories
Latest News
Top news around the world
Coronavirus Disease

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus.

Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.

Around the World

Celebrity News

> Latest News in Media

Watch It
Olivia, Sophia and Aurora Culpo on sharing clothes and their new fashion line | Page Six News
October 27, 2020
1rj8Oy1Q9iM
‘RHOC’ alum Vicki Gunvalson addresses Steve Lodge breakup rumors | Page Six Celebrity News
October 27, 2020
q2hWzuxekUw
Kanye West reacts to Jennifer Aniston saying not to vote for him | Page Six Celebrity News
October 27, 2020
9jg_X_6a-B8
Nicole Kidman & Hugh Grant on Becoming a 'Sexy' Couple for 'The Undoing'
October 26, 2020
VQz_8ZvaSb0
Aloe Blacc: Live from My Den
October 23, 2020
-ol2cCTBZeI
Tyler Perry on Producing During the Pandemic and Weighing In on Politics
October 23, 2020
GCtEmmdmAz0
"Vanderpump Rules" Star Scheana Shay Is Pregnant | E! News
October 28, 2020
0RJVbQ_KywM
Kelly Rowland Talks "Brown Skin Girl" Video With Beyoncé | Daily Pop | E! News
October 28, 2020
EeTdr_FTOaA
Kathy Hilton Officially Joins "RHOBH" as a Friend | Daily Pop | E! News
October 28, 2020
a1jNe-rqPOE
Chris Harrison Gave Dodgers Advance Screening of New 'Bachelorette' Debut | TMZ
October 28, 2020
L7nXHbwf5PU
Bella Hadid Shaves Her Horses | TMZ TV
October 28, 2020
DEcavU9GD_8
The Rock Tastes His Own Blood After Gym Injury, Gets Stitches to Close Gash | TMZ TV
October 28, 2020
AS5QxRNANqc
TV Schedule
Late Night Show
Watch the latest shows of U.S. top comedians

Sports

Latest sport results, news, videos, interviews and comments
Latest Events
28
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Rotherham - Sheffield Wednesday
28
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Bournemouth - Bristol City
28
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Preston NE - Millwall
28
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Derby County - Cardiff City
28
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Birmingham - Huddersfield
28
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Luton - Nottingham Forest
27
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Swansea City - Stoke City
27
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Wycombe Wanderers - Watford
27
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Middlesbrough - Coventry
27
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Blackburn - Reading
27
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Brentford - Norwich City
27
Oct
ENGLAND: Championship
Barnsley - QPR
26
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
AC Milan - Roma
26
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Burnley - Tottenham Hotspur
26
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Brighton - West Bromwich Albion
26
Oct
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg
26
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Levante - Celta Vigo
25
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Arsenal - Leicester City
25
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
Juventus - Verona
25
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
Benevento - Napoli
25
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Real Sociedad - Huesca
25
Oct
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Wolfsburg - Arminia Bielefeld
25
Oct
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim
25
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Wolves - Newcastle United
25
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Getafe - Granada CF
25
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
Fiorentina - Udinese
25
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Cadiz - Villarreal
24
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Manchester United - Chelsea
24
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Barcelona - Real Madrid
24
Oct
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Schalke
24
Oct
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Bayern Munich - Eintracht Frankfurt
24
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Liverpool - Sheffield United
24
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Atletico Madrid - Real Betis
24
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
West Ham United - Manchester City
24
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
Genoa - Inter Milan
21
Oct
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Group stage, Group A
Bayern Munich - Atletico Madrid
21
Oct
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Group stage, Group B
Inter Milan - Borussia Monchengladbach
21
Oct
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Group stage, Group D
Ajax - Liverpool
20
Oct
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Group stage, Group H
PSG - Manchester United
20
Oct
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Group stage, Group G
Barcelona - Ferencvaros
18
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
Roma - Benevento
18
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur - West Ham United
17
Oct
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Arminia Bielefeld - Bayern Munich
17
Oct
ENGLAND: Premier League
Newcastle United - Manchester United
17
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Getafe - Barcelona
17
Oct
ITALY: Serie A
Crotone - Juventus
17
Oct
SPAIN: La Liga
Real Madrid - Cadiz
Find us on Instagram
at @feedimo to stay up to date with the latest.
Featured Video You Might Like
zWJ3MxW_HWA L1eLanNeZKg i1XRgbyUtOo -g9Qziqbif8 0vmRhiLHE2U JFCZUoa6MYE UfN5PCF5EUo 2PV55f3-UAg W3y9zuI_F64 -7qCxIccihU pQ9gcOoH9R8 g5MRDEXRk4k
Copyright © 2020 Feedimo. All Rights Reserved.