Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is set for a small majority of 28 seats, an influential YouGov poll for the Times has forecast.
The constituency-by-constituency estimate also suggests the Tories will win 339 seats in 2019, a rise of 22 from 2017, while Jeremy Corbyn’s
Labour Party will lose 31 and end up with a total of 231.
But it is a drop of 40 seats from a previous YouGov poll in November that predicted the Tories would have a 68-seat majority.
If the
election was held tomorrow, the research suggests the Lib Dems would win 15 seats, three more than in 2017, while the SNP would gain six for an overall total of 41.NEW: @YouGov MRP model published by @thetimes cuts projected Tory majority from 68 two weeks ago to 28 nowCON 339LAB 231LDEM 15SNP 41Range on Tory predictions is 311-367, so we CANNOT rule out a hung Parliament.😬 😬 😬 FULL MAP WITH EVERY SEAThttps://t.co/ONKnA8bxsOpic.twitter.com/VhZxUKMobW— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) December 10, 2019According to the poll, Plaid and the Green Party will see no change from four and one seats won in 2017 respectively.
In terms of total seats, 339 would be the Conservative’s best election performance since Margaret Thatcher was leader in 1987.
But if Labour drop to 231 it would mean the party’s worst performance since 1983.
YouGov has interviewed approximately 100,000 people about their voting intentions in the past seven days.
It said the margin of error could put the final number of Tory seats anywhere between 311 and 367, suggesting a hung Parliament cannot be ruled out.
The poll is seen as significant as it accurately forecast the hung parliament in the 2017 general election, and even correctly projected that marginal seats including Kensington and
Chelsea and Canterbury would swing from the Conservatives to the Labour Party.
YouGov used a computer model known in the polling industry as MRP (or multilevel regression and post-stratification), which analyses the specific demographics of each seat.The results of the final YouGov MRP model for #GE2019 are now here:Con – 339 seats / 43% vote shareLab – 231 / 34%SNP – 41 / 3%LD – 15 / 12%Plaid – 4 / 1%Green – 1 / 3%Brexit Party – 0 / 3%Conservative majority of 28https://t.co/IAyXTc89vHpic.twitter.com/yk3dNAhN0p— YouGov (@YouGov) December 10, 2019YouGov also suggested Labour has witnessed a “late rise”: “Whilst in 2017 they started to close the gap a few weeks out from the election, and then stayed steady for the final week, this time it does seem like the gap is closing very late in the campaign.”
It says since the weekend, the Conservative lead over Labour has shrunk from 11% to 9%, which has also brought down the estimated size of the Conservative majority.
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “Our latest and final poll shows that a small Conservative majority is likely, with the Tories taking 22 more seats than in 2017 and Labour losing 31.
“This would be the best and worst results respectively for each party since the 80s.
“But the margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.
“As things currently stand there are 85 seats with a margin of error of 5% or less.”
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