August 07, 2018
Washington Post: Republicans are panicking about losing Tuesday’s Ohio special election.
Ohio special election, Different point of view
If things had gone according to plan for Republicans, Tuesday's special congressional election for an open seat in Ohio wouldn't be worth your time.
President Trump won this district in the northern Columbus suburbs by 11 points in 2016, and Republicans have held onto it for decades. The election to replace longtime Republican Patrick J. Tiberi, who is leaving for a business opportunity, was supposed to be a relatively undramatic affair.
But despite everything you see on paper, this special election is competitive. That's a boldfaced data point for the increasingly conventional wisdom among independent political observers that Democrats are going to take back the majority in the House of Representatives this November. Even if Democrats only come close to winning, some are calling that a success.
Polling shows a tight race: An independent poll out Wednesday, less than a week before the election, showed the race basically tied. Monmouth University has Balderson with a 1 percent lead, which is statistically insignificant, over Democrat Danny O'Connor, 44 percent to 43 percent.
MSNBC: Ohio special election ‘should be a slam dunk and it’s not’
Ohio special election, Different point of view
Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) was asked over the weekend about today’s congressional special election in his state’s 12th district, which is a traditional Republican stronghold. The governor conceded that the race is “very close.”
“It’s really kind of shocking because this should be just a slam dunk and it’s not. […]
“It really doesn’t bode well for the Republican Party because this shouldn’t even be contested.”
Ohio special election, Different point of view
Donald Trump personally visited the area over the weekend, headlining a campaign rally in support of Balderson’s candidacy, which followed a local appearance from Vice President Mike Pence.
In other words, Republicans are pulling out all the stops for this guy. And yet, there’s Danny O’Connor, a moderate Democrat and county official, who stands a decent chance of winning. A Monmouth University poll last week found Balderson up by just one point, while an Emerson College poll released yesterday showed O’Connor narrowly ahead.
It obviously matters who prevails, but Kasich’s point from the weekend resonates: this contest should be “a slam dunk” for the GOP, and the fact that it’s come down to the wire “doesn’t bode well for the Republican Party.”
Fox News: Fox News pundit confesses Republicans ‘are in a boatload of trouble’ if they lose the Ohio special election.
Tuesday is a special election in the Ohio 12th District, where President Donald Trump won overwhelmingly. Yet, the polls show that the Republican and Democrat are within a point of each other in the race.
“This all comes down to turn out. And as a reporter just mentioned, the suburbs of Columbus, Franklin County which is where a third of the vote would be cast in 2016, that’s the area where Balderson — President Trump did the worst,” said RealClearPolitics co-founder Tom Bevan.
“The typical caveat is not to read it too much into elections, but this one, given the proximity to the general election, given that the history of this district, which as a reporter just mentioned had not been won by a Democrat in decades,” Bevan continued. “And given President Trump’s appearance as they are over the weekend and putting his clout on the line as sort of a general election setting makes it that much more important.”
He went on to predict a major problem for the GOP if Republican Troy Balderson loses on Tuesday. Arguably, however, the GOP is already in trouble for getting this close to losing a seat that has been Republican for three decades.
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