Manchester United may be buoyed by their draw with
Liverpool on Sunday, but the result leaves them in a more precarious position than their opponents. The
Premier League is likely to be granted an added fifth
Champions League spot this season ahead of the new incoming format, but even if United win their game in hand over Aston Villa, they will be some eight off the top five with six games to play. In fact, they are closer to dropping out of the European places altogether than they are claiming a Champions League spot. Newcastle United in eighth are just two points behind, while forlorn
Chelsea would only be the same distance off if they win their game in hand. READ MORE: The cases for and against United keeping Erik ten Hag READ MORE: Jurgen Klopp aims dig at United performance after Liverpool draw With Champions League qualification looking as distant as the setting sun, Erik ten Hag will be more mindful of who is creeping up over his shoulder. There is a real possibility that United do not achieve European
Football at all next season. The absence of Champions League football would already be a huge blow but no European competition next season would put a huge dent in Sir Jim Ratcliffe ’s transfer budget. If the worst was to happen, then United do have a backdoor route into the Europa League via an FA Cup final triumph. With
Manchester City potentially the opponents in the Wembley showpiece, few supporters would be confident of succeeding. But even if they did, the drop-off in finances would be huge. During this year’s dismal Champions League campaign, United have raked in around £37m despite finishing bottom of their group. Just for qualifying for the group stages, clubs get £13.4m with each win bringing in £2.4m and each draw just under £800,000. With United earning just one win and a draw, that took their total to £16.2m - the other £20.8m comes from UEFA’s proportionate revenue distribution based on coefficient ranking, with United currently running 10th thanks to European success within the last decade. The club will get a few million more at the end of the season when the broadcast revenue is totted up. In comparison, the winners of the Europa League earn a maximum of around £20m, should they go through the competition with a perfect record. The true carrot of the Europa League, though, is Champions League qualification. Going all the way in Europe’s second-tier competition under current rules guarantees around £68m - which comprises the Europa League winners' prize money, plus Champions League group stage money and then co-efficient revenue.
Manchester United cannot afford to finish outside of the top seven However, under the new format one-table, prize money is set to inflate. The Champions League pot is set to increase from £1.7billion to £2.14 billion. For reference, taking part in this season’s group stage raked in £13.4m - next term it will be almost £16m. Of course, the competition itself rewards progression with the winner set to take home £21.4m, compared to this season’s £17.1m. Each group stage win rakes in £1.8m and every draw, £0.6m. More than half of the total prize pot is distributed for TV money and co-efficient performance over the last 10 years; for instance United currently being 10th would mean they receive the 10th-highest co-efficient revenue share. Without European qualification, United would be losing the £37m they claimed this season and a finish outside the top seven will mean they will not be able to reduce that deficit - or make secure a Champions League return and the cash it brings - via the Europa League. Winning the new-formatted Europa League would barely scrape £25m, and not even £17m if they won the Europa Conference League. Of course, this does not factor in TV money and co-efficient ranking cash either, which would provide an even greater cash loss. Such precise figures are ominously still ambiguous at this stage. What is certain, though, is that Champions League broadcast rights will increase and thus United are missing out on their piece of the now-bigger pie. With compensation to pay for Newcastle sporting director Dan Ashworth and Southampton technical director Jason Wilcox, plus Financial Fair Play to battle, not qualifying for European football could be monumentally concerning for United.