Senior Conservatives are pinning their hopes on an advantage they have in terms of party funds and Rishi Sunak ‘s work ethic to try and overhaul
Labour ‘s polling lead – even though insiders worry that the party could struggle to put together an election-winning manifesto . Tory strategists switched in to
election mode at the start of 2024, when
Australian campaign chief Isaac Levido went in to Conservative Party headquarters on a full-time basis. At about the same time, the Prime Minister started to set aside at least one day a week – and sometimes more – to political campaign visits separate from his official Government business, up from a single day every few weeks. With the Tories trailing Labour by around 20 percentage points on average, the current numbers put Mr Sunak on track for a disastrous defeat at the general election. One of the few weapons he has left to wield is that he and he alone can determine the date of the election. It is generally expected to take place in the autumn, with Labour understood to be working on the basis that polling day will fall in October, but the date will not be fixed until Mr Sunak asks the King to dissolve Parliament and formally begin the countdown of around six weeks. “We will be ready whenever it’s called,” a senior Conservative official said. A Tory MP remarked: “The one thing we do not need to worry about is funding. We have the ability to outspend Labour. I don’t know this for certain, but I do wonder whether keeping the date of an election quiet is so we can keep Labour spending money so they run out of cash by the time the campaign is called.” Labour’s income from donations has risen significantly under Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership but it still lags behind the Tories, with the Opposition raking in £31m last year and the party of Government making £48m, according to Electoral Commission figures. The Conservatives are committed to a strategy which now looks remarkably ambitious known as “80:20” – targeting resources on 80 marginal seats already held by the party, and 20 more that it could take from Labour, the Liberal
Democrats or the SNP. To keep their majority in Parliament, the Tories would need to keep at least half of those key 80 – something polls now suggest is very unlikely. “Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) say they are sticking with the 80:20 strategy because they have to – if they didn’t there would be an outcry,” an MP told i . “But certain seats are certainly not getting the resources they would like.” The backbencher added: “Central office is undertaking deeper polling into certain marginals in the ‘Red Wall’, and it’s showing that some seats are not looking as bad as is generally thought. Obviously, we are going to be in opposition after the election, but it could be that seats with bigger majorities in the South are lost but seats in the ‘Red Wall’ are held on to.” Read Next The Budget proved it: No 10 has little appetite for a general election in May Tory veterans have been impressed by the central organisation, despite the unpromising political background. “They’ve got Isaac Levido in much earlier than usual, which makes sense,” one insider said. “The operation seems to be working well, their messaging is good. “And they’ve actually got people in CCHQ who have fought an election before, which makes a lot of difference.” Labour’s headquarters has few operatives who have experience of previous election campaigns, given the high turnover of staff after Sir Keir succeeded
Jeremy Corbyn. On the substance, however, there is more nervousness. The Tory insider said: “When it comes to the manifesto I just don’t know how they’ll find stuff to fill it.” Mr Sunak has set out relatively few long-term ambitions which might make it to the manifesto, other than abolishing national insurance – which he admits could take more than five years to achieve. It has not yet been confirmed who will write the manifesto, although several Cabinet ministers have started soliciting ideas from other ministers and Tory MPs via a series of committees. A senior party source said: “I suspect the manifesto will be very centralised, because that just tends to be how Rishi works. Whereas Boris didn’t give a toss about policy and had smart people around him work it all out.” Despite widespread discontent with the leadership on the Tory benches, the Prime Minister’s inner circle remains tight and fiercely loyal – many worked for him in the Treasury and on his doomed battle with Liz Truss in the 2022 leadership election. Defending Mr Sunak against claims that he chafes against scrutiny, a minister said: “The PM’s got a very thick skin, he knows he’s going to get some stick but he’s a very glass-half-full type of guy.” But Westminster insiders have raised eyebrows about his reluctance to expose himself to the media on the election campaign trail too far, with only a handful of reporters invited along to most of his events. A Downing Street source said Mr Sunak’s reputation for being “tetchy” stemmed from his obsession with detail, admitting: “The Prime Minister can be quite short with people and quite direct. He’s very focused on the details of things and doesn’t like when others don’t live up to his expectations.”