3 Body Problem
Netflix has a problem. With 3 bodies. Sorry I had to. But seriously, Netflix is finding themselves in a predicament where one of its biggest show investments ever may not be quite paying off the way it needs to, and they have a big decision to make about where it goes from here. 3 Body Problem has arrived on Netflix as of just over a week ago. But it fell off the US top ten #1 spot a few days ago, and the majority of global regions have followed. It’s #1 in 25 countries as of a day or two ago, out of 94 or so tracked countries around the world. Last week in its first few days of release it tied the viewership of The Gentleman, a show that’s now three weeks old and was #1 for two full weeks after its debut. These numbers might be okay for another show, but for 3 Body Problem, we’re talking about a show with a reported budget of $20 million an episode , for eight episodes. That’s the most expensive first season for a Netflix show ever, even if other shows like the later seasons of Stranger Things surpassed that eventually. The issue is to finish the 3 Body Problem book trilogy by Cixin Liu would require at least three seasons, two more covering the next two books. The showrunners say they’ve already done a lot of work on season 2 (though 3 Body Problem has not actually been renewed yet) but they’ve also said it could take four seasons to get through it all. 3 Body Problem The amount of cash Netflix would be spending on this would be enormous. They’re already around $160 million in based on those figures and eight episodes. Two more seasons at the same cost would be $480 million. Four seasons would be $640 million. And this is assuming the budget remains constant. The places the next books go are absolutely wild, and would require more VFX work, most likely, than previous seasons. The cast would also could get raises by a third season. So if you’re creeping into what, $25 million an episode then, the costs balloon even more. And all for a show that just got knocked off the top 10 list in a few days by the docudrama “Testament: The Story of Moses.” Netflix has two things to consider on the other side. 1) Cancelling a high profile show based on one of the all-time best sci-fi series ever just one book adaptation in would look terrible, and be one of the worst additions to its vast “killed early” content graveyard. Plus 2) this is a show from
Game of Thrones showrunners David Benioff and DB Weiss, where Netflix has a high-dollar deal with them for future content, and the cancellation of a show they’ve committed so hard to could damage that relationship. But that cost. It would indeed likely be close to a half billion dollars, if not over that, in order to see this through. While sky high costs could be justified for something like Stranger Things, given that it’s one of the most popular shows in Netflix history, 3 Body Problem does not seem to be putting up numbers that will land it anywhere near Netflix’s historical most viewed lists. I would not want to be in their shoes. As a viewer, I hope they do it, because I liked the show and would obviously want to see it finished. But from Netflix’s end, this is a commitment they may not want to swallow. Follow me on
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