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Inflation Hotter Than Expected – Momo Buys The Bad News, JP Morgan CEO Says Recession Not 'Off The Table'
Mar 12, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Hotter Inflation Please click here for an enlarged version of the chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is hovering above the trendline. The chart shows when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was last reported, the stock market fell as CPI was hotter than expected. The difference between when CPI was reported last time as shown on the chart and the CPI release this time is that stock market euphoria has significantly expanded. The chart shows that the stock market is rising after the CPI report today. CPI came hotter than expected. Here are the details: Headline CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.2% whisper number. Core CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.2% whisper number. On a micro level, the stock market quickly dipped after the release of the hotter than expected CPI, but then the momo crowd stepped in to aggressively buy the dip. If the stock market was in a rational phase, it would have seen a big drop today on the hotter than expected CPI. However, the stock market is in a euphoric phase. In a euphoric phase, bad news is good news, and good news is great news. A characteristic of the euphoric phase is that all news is bought, irrespective of what it is. Momo gurus have a new highly flawed narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks. The narrative is that year-over-year inflation came at 3.2% vs. 3.1% consensus. As we have shared with you several times along the way, looking solely at year-over-year is like driving while looking only in the rearview mirror. Investors should look at month-over-month for the last three months – this is like looking through the windshield. Investors should also look at year-over-year, but that is like looking through the ...Full story available on Benzinga.com
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