It was a week that was book-ended by disappointment for Rishi Sunak . On Monday, the Prime Minister saw his former deputy party chair Lee Anderson defect to Reform
UK citing the Budget as a “tipping point” for him. By Friday, Sunak was dealt an even more damaging blow when his defence minister James Heappey – up until then a loyal servant to the Government – had announced he was quitting and standing down as an MP. The reason given was ostensibly because of family reasons, but reports had emerged that he had grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of defence spending committed by the Prime Minister. Heappey becomes the 62nd Conservative MP to announce they are stepping away from politics at the general election, and i has been told that the party is braced for the final figure to be more than 100 by the time polling day arrives. While for some it is about calling time on lengthy Westminster careers, such as
Theresa May who announced her retirement the week before , for others it is simply jumping before the inevitable happens, such is the disillusionment among MPs about the party’s prospects under Sunak. “I think you are going to see Conservatives in Red Wall, marginal seats, throwing the towel in in the coming weeks as well and quitting,” one Tory source said. “These aren’t safe seat old timers, it’s 2019ers in marginal seats where they are just giving up.” One Red Wall MP said it “doesn’t surprise me” that their 2019er colleagues could announce they are standing down. “I know a couple who have been toying with it,” they said. News that MPs are not willing to defend their seats at the forthcoming
election will hugely undermine Sunak’s bid to lead his party at the ballot box, but it reflects the darkening mood among the Conservative benches over the prospects of the party. Deep misgivings over how the Budget has failed to shift the dial with voters have been compounded by a series of hammer blows this week that first began with Anderson joining Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Many MPs, particularly on the right of the party, believe the disciplinary process was poorly handled, while for others it showed that the party was not being bold enough in terms of its offer to voters. The Anderson row was swiftly overshadowed, however, by Downing Street’s failure to get ahead of a row over the party’s biggest donor Frank Hester, who had been accused of saying Diane Abbott made him want to “hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”. The Prime Minister’s initial refusal to call it out as both racist and misogynistic, only to u-turn on that decision once Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch had called it out as such, only served to further fuel doubts among MPs about Sunak’s political nous and his fitness for the top
Job. A former Cabinet minister described the initial stance on Hester as “ridiculous”, while few remain pleased by the Prime Minister’s decision to try and draw a line under it by insisting the Tory donor had apologised. “There’s a feeling of yet more incompetence,” one MP said. Sunak on Thursday tried to reassert some authority over his party by ruling out an election on 2 May, putting an end to fevered speculation among backbenches that he could go early despite the Tories lagging by around 20 points in the polls. The decision has calmed some, who are fearful of losing their seats and are optimistic that an improving
economy and the general hope of something turning up could save their skins. But for others the news is likely to have been nothing but a disappointment. One Whitehall source told i that a minister had been crossing fingers for a May election. “They will obviously campaign for the party, but they just want to get out and move on and do something else,” the insider said. The source added that No 10 was expecting many more MPs to announce they are standing down. “The official number is around 60,” the source said before the resignation of Heappey and Brandon Lewis earlier this week. “But we’ve been told that the actual number is going to be around 100 or more.” Confirmation that an election will not take place in May, with the expectation that it will fall in October or November, may in theory give Sunak more time to prove to voters that his plan is working. But it also hands those itching to oust him more space to plot on how to remove him before an election has to be called in January. Danger signs for No 10 started flashing earlier this week when the speculation began percolating that a “flurry” of no confidence letters had been submitted to 1922 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady. Talk is now rife among certain Tory quarters that a move against the Prime Minister is inevitable. One minister, who has been scrupulously loyal to Sunak, said: “There 100 per cent will be some form of challenge to him. 2 May [when local
elections will take place] is looking dreadful. And the party is just utterly despondent. Everyone has checked out. An election is all we have left – call it, get it done.” Another Tory MP suggested that an autumn election was unlikely. “I think it’s unlikely he can survive. It will only get worse.” To make matters worse for No 10, murmurs are starting to be heard among
Boris Johnson supporters to stage an unlikely comeback. Supporters of the former prime minister are continuing to push for him to go for a safe seat in a by-election, although there is no suggestion Johnson himself is actively planning to do so. A Tory MP and ally of Johnson even claimed some members of the One Nation caucus in the party, one of the driving forces behind his downfall as prime minister in summer 2022, were coming round to the idea of him being leader again if he were to get a seat. The MP said: “People realise that no one is perfect in politics. Some of the people who were anti-Boris in the One Nation group, even they are now realising the difference he would make if he were still leader, and their hostility to Boris is a whole lot less.” For Sunak and his team there is little option but to keep pushing on. A No 10 source said there will be a “bit more policy oomph next week” as the Prime Minister aimed to regain control of the narrative. The source added: “It has been a bit bumpy, but actually it’s heads down, keep going on the things that matter to people – we had growth the other day, the outlook is improving all the time so we have just got to focus.” The problem for Downing Street, however, is that signs of improvement on the horizon is unlikely to be enough to quell the growing frustrations among those on his own side.