November 23, 2017
Russia Is Roaring Back to the Middle East While America Is Asleep

Russia is back in the Middle East. The Kremlin is methodically creating a systematic geopolitical challenge to the interests of the United States and its allies. Moscow’s behavior is driven by a quest for prestige and influence, and a search for markets of its arms and other goods—a classic great power pattern.
Oil is in the center of this quest, but it is not only issue. As oil prices are above $55/barrel and Saudi Arabia, the oil market maker, is facing its gravest political crisis since the 1920s when the monarchy was first established, Moscow’s production-limiting cooperation with Tehran and Riyadh puts Russia in the spotlight in the region. However, the Kremlin’s renewed activity in the Middle East is geopolitical, and goes beyond business. As in Soviet times, Moscow seeks to control governments, re-establish military bases, open maritime routes and expand exports. These great power ambitions suggest a broader shift in the regional balance, revealing a return to the nineteenth century strategic competition and raising serious questions about the future of American power.

Back to Great Power Competition
Russia has defined itself as an ever-expanding empire since time immemorial. During its eight-hundred-year history, the state shrunk only three times: in the early seventeenth century during the “Time of Troubles,” which led to the Polish occupation of Moscow; after the Bolshevik coup of 1917; and lastly, with the disintegration of the USSR in 1991.
Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia abandoned most of its military deployments in the Middle East, though it maintained some weapons sales clients. Being an empire was just too expensive. Syria—with its naval “supply and repair” base in Tartus and the air base in Khmeimim—was the only country Moscow clung to.
With the rise in oil prices after the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, and especially after Moscow’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and the Crimea (oil prices dropped later that year), Russia embarked on a methodical rebalancing in the Middle East. The aim is to challenge the United States and its partners.
Some analysts believe that Syria may be a bargaining chip for Ukraine and the U.S.-imposed sanctions. However, the diminishing American regional presence in the Mideast, and Russia’s willingness to fill the void, suggest broader ambitions.
Russian Middle East aspirations include several aspects important to its national security and global strategy:
- A bridgehead against jihadism. Radical Islam has proven to be attractive to some 2,500 Russian citizens, who have fought in Syria and Iraq, as well as to hundreds more from the former USSR who chose to join ISIS. Their “homecoming” is a real threat. Moscow is the second largest city in Europe in terms of its Muslim population, after Istanbul.
- A theater of strategic competition with the United States. The ruling elite—Putin and his entourage, the military and security services leadership, and Russian TV—are defined by the defeat in the Cold War. All are obsessed with America’s alleged attempts to undermine or even dismember Mother Russia.
- Oil price influence. It is in Russia’s interest to increase its influence on oil prices, especially as the resource is vital to Russia’s economy. This influence can come through cartel-like agreements or by fanning the flames of conflicts—such as in the case of Saudi Arabia versus Iran. Nothing explodes oil prices more than the specter of war or a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
- A market for weapons. The conflict in Syria showcased the Russian military-industrial complex’s capabilities, from Kalibr medium range cruise missiles to SU-35 fighter jets and S-400 missile defense systems. These are on sale to the highest bidder because, as a Moscow saying goes, “weapons sales make good allies.”
- Russia’s resolve to support its allies. The Syrian war demonstrated Moscow’s resolve to stick with allies despite deteriorating circumstances. They do business with the likes of Saddam or Assad, whereas Washington remains picky and conditional.

Regional Power Vacuum
The Obama administration believed that the best interest of the United States was withdrawing from “Bush’s wars.” Obama’s reaction to the Syrian crisis suggests that the Iran nuclear deal, and staying out of military conflicts, was more important than preventing the largest humanitarian catastrophe since World War II. The Trump administration’s first year has not presented coherent policies, either.
America’s response to Russian challenges in the Middle East hints at a regional power vacuum. The Europeans cannot fill it, and China is at least a decade away from being able. Therefore, by default and by intention, Russia is stepping in.

The United States is Always to Blame
Russia has woven a damning narrative of U.S. regional involvement in the Middle East, Europe, and the former Soviet Union, going back to Soviet-occupied Afghanistan. Some Russian “experts,” with 20/20 hindsight, depict the Soviets as anti-jihadi; whereas the United States supported the mujahedeen, including the radicals.
Like conservative Arab leaders and the Israelis, Russia saw the United States under Obama as abandoning allies and opening the door to the Muslim Brotherhood, which breeds chaos in Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Gaza and beyond. Moreover, the Russians ignored the systemic failure of the sclerotic, corrupt and brutal autocratic quasi-socialist regimes in Cairo, Baghdad, Tripoli, and Damascus, obsessing about real or imagined U.S. influence there.

Moscow’s Last Stand
So the Kremlin made a stand in Syria. This is Moscow’s faustian bargain: Assad, denounced by both Obama and Trump, remains in place for now; the Astana peace process is directed from Moscow and Teheran; and Russia’s military has accomplished its first successful power projection operation outside the Soviet borders since the debacle in Afghanistan decades ago.
Russia has restored its strained relationship with Turkey—Ankara is even buying Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. Turkey is also proceeding with the Turkish Stream pipeline project despite Western sanctions. One might argue that Russo-Turkish interests collide in Syria and the Black Sea area, but Ankara’s anti-Americanism may prevail in the short to medium term.
Even staunch U.S. ally Israel warmed up to Moscow after Obama’s Iran deal. Bringing Iranian influence to the Golan, and emboldening Hezbollah at the Jewish state’s doorstep, pressed a Jerusalem-Moscow dialogue. The Putin-Netanyahu relationship remains strong, despite a massive Russian military deployment in Syria which threatens Israel’s air dominance over the Levant.
Putin also courted Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Egypt and Russia jointly supported General Khalifa Haftar’s power aspirations in Libya, whereas the U.S.

State Department still backs the powerless Tripoli government.
Finally, in Iran, Russia now enjoys the right to temporary air base landing and refueling in Hamadan, and the ability to fire missiles through Iranian airspace from the Caspian Sea into Syria. The decades-old cooperation between Tehran and Moscow against the United States, its Sunni Arab allies and Israel is going strong.

Conclusions: American Choices in the Middle East
The United States’ shale revolution coincides with American war fatigue and diminishing international involvement. President Donald J. Trump has denounced global democracy and nation-building ideological crusades, and apparently seeks Putin’s partnership. However, the Washington establishment (including the Republican Congressional leadership) disagree, viewing Russia as an implacable global adversary.
Whether America’s disengagement will end, we do not know. History teaches us that the United States is a global power and will be dragged into major future power competitions, including with Russia, China and Iran. But without articulating coherent, credible policy goals; without improving its key relations, it may lose post-Cold War U.S. regional predominance positions, including in the Middle East. Supporting the Saudis in Yemen, cooperating with Iraq against ISIS, and a new Israeli-Palestinian “peace plan” do not yet amount to a coherent regional strategy.
This lack of coherence will complicate support for U.S. allies in the Gulf and Israel, and will further undermine relations with key Arab ally Egypt. Ultimately, America’s global standing will suffer, as Russia with its languishing economy, which is only one-fourteenth of America’s, prevails over the U.S. superpower in a key global geostrategic theater.
Ariel Cohen, PhD, is Nonresident Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council and Director, Center for Energy, Natural Resources and Geopolitics at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. He is the author of six books and monographs, including Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis, and over 1,000 articles. He regularly contributes to leading TV channels, including CNN, BBC, FOX, Bloomberg, and writes for The Wall Street Journal, The Hill, Huffington Post, and other publications. Máté Mátyás, a Junior Fellow of the Hungarian American Coalition currently at the Center for Energy, Natural Resources and Geopolitics, contributed to the research.
Editor’s Note: This article is adapted from a longer paper published by the Center for Global Policy.
Related Stories
Latest News
Top news around the world
Academy Awards

‘Oppenheimer’ Reigns at Oscars With Seven Wins, Including Best Picture and Director

Get the latest news about the 2024 Oscars, including nominations, winners, predictions and red carpet fashion at 96th Academy Awards

Around the World

Celebrity News

> Latest News in Media

Media
SkyPixel 9th Annual Photo & Video Contest Winners Announced
Mar 19, 2024
Competition Receives a Record Number of Submissions that Highlight the Power of Innovation SHENZHEN, China, March 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- SkyPixel, one of the world's most popular online communities for aerial photography and videography, today announces the winners of the SkyPixel 9th Annual Photo & Video Contest. Co-organized with DJI, this year's competition attracted over 130,000 submissions – a 100% increase from the previous year. The contest welcomed submissions from across the creator community, which includes professionals, aerial enthusiasts, and creative newcomers, showcasing their personal histories through the art of visual innovation. A Contest Shaped by You The SkyPixel Annual Photo & Video Contest is a testament to the power of innovation led imagery, honoring stories that shape the art of image capture both on solid ground and amidst the clouds. SkyPixel has cultivated a community-driven platform that reflects the dreams and aspirations of creators worldwide, and the annual competition has been a conduit for people who love image creation to express themselves as it authentically reflects the desires and aspirations of creators worldwide. Industry-Leading Judges The 9th Annual Photo & Video Contest was assessed by a Judging Panel of incredible professionals in the industry. In photography, seasoned experts include Wen Huang, a World Press Photo judge and Senior Editor, and Anne Farrar, Assistant Photography Chief Editor at National Geographic, Nan Li, the Photo Director of Southern Weekly, and Daniel Kordan, a renowned landscape photographer. In the video category, the judges include Michael Fitzmaurice, the Aerial Director of Photography of "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle," and Xiaoshi Zhao, known for his award-winning work on "Forever Enthralled." Bing Xi, a prominent figure in the Chinese TVC industry, and celebrated filmmaker Brandon Li round out the panel. After careful deliberation, the panel proudly presents the final winners for the year. 9th Annual Best Work Prize – Video: "Haines Alaska Through the Eyes of Luke Bredar" by Luke Bredar This year's video judging panel, which includes award-winning Cinematographers and Directors of Photography, chose Luke Bredar's video, "Haines Alaska Through the Eyes of Luke Bredar." This short film mixes heart-pounding action shots of a skier racing down a snowy mountaintop landscapes with breathtaking shots of Alaska's mountainous, winter terrain. Luke Bredar details the thought process behind the short film, "The motivation behind creating this video was to evoke themes of otherworldliness, objective risk, the interplay between risk and the essence of human spirit, solitude, impermanence, self-sufficiency, and the journey of incomplete wandering intertwined with heartbreak." This short film is an epic story made in collaboration with Matchstick Productions. Bredar explains how he pursues a better visual presentation through his creative process "I think to myself. How would my child self want to see this filmed? And I almost always get a clear vision in response. There are a myriad of challenges shooting aerial cinematography in mountain environments, but they are all ...Full story available on Benzinga.com
READ MORE
Watch It
Olivia Munn Reveals Breast Cancer Diagnosis and Double Mastectomy Procedure | E! News
March 13, 2024
kUaEV1Kd3S0
Travis Kelce Shares Details From His Trip to Singapore With Taylor Swift | E! News
March 13, 2024
3YXi-Dgf4eg
Kate Middleton VIRAL Photo: Agency Addresses Photoshop Claims | E! News
March 13, 2024
S4VkO0TpkCY
Da'Vine Joy Randolph Plays 'Smash or Pass' With Iconic Moments From Her Career
March 13, 2024
vkPdJEF2BX4
Jean Smart Wears a Hotel Bathrobe to Present an Award to Hannah Einbinder l Power of Comedy SxSW
March 12, 2024
Bw7uVEYQev4
Lenny Kravitz Walk of Fame Ceremony
March 12, 2024
MlWq8BcnwhE
Dak Prescott Extortion Plot & Steph Curry for President? | TMZ Sports Full Ep - 3/12/24
March 13, 2024
jHFsrjs7OFY
A Japanese space rocket blew up after takeoff Tuesday, turning the sky into a fireball of smoke.
March 13, 2024
YkfJ3Qg8B7c
#KimKardashian and #BiancaCensori hung out at #KanyeWest's listening party Tuesday night!
March 13, 2024
EfwLLq6bx9k
‘Pioneer Woman’ Ree Drummond denies using Ozempic to lose 60 pounds
March 13, 2024
Omfjk1AlZ3A
Chrissy Teigen reveals her ‘boob lift scars’ in daring dress at Jay-Z & Beyoncé’s Oscars 2024 party
March 13, 2024
VxZ2qXAlpmU
Zoë Kravitz pokes fun at dad Lenny Kravitz's style during Hollywood Walk of Fame speech
March 13, 2024
j3-lcFu_1sQ
TV Schedule
Late Night Show
Watch the latest shows of U.S. top comedians

Sports

Latest sport results, news, videos, interviews and comments
Latest Events
17
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Atletico Madrid - Barcelona
17
Mar
ENGLAND: FA Cup
Manchester United - Liverpool
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Inter Milan - Napoli
17
Mar
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt
17
Mar
ENGLAND: FA Cup
Chelsea - Leicester City
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Roma - Sassuolo
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Verona - AC Milan
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Juventus - Genoa
17
Mar
GERMANY: Bundesliga
SC Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen
17
Mar
USA: Major League Soccer
Atlanta United - Orlando City
17
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
West Ham United - Aston Villa
17
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Real Betis
17
Mar
ENGLAND: Championship
Leeds - Millwall
17
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Las Palmas - Almeria
17
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Villarreal - Valencia
17
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Sevilla - Celta Vigo
16
Mar
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Darmstadt - Bayern Munich
16
Mar
ENGLAND: FA Cup
Manchester City - Newcastle United
16
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
Fulham - Tottenham Hotspur
16
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Osasuna - Real Madrid
13
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1/8 Final
Atletico Madrid - Inter Milan
12
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1/8 Final
Barcelona - Napoli
12
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1/8 Final
Arsenal - Porto
11
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
Chelsea - Newcastle United
10
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
Liverpool - Manchester City
10
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Real Madrid - Celta Vigo
10
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur
10
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Juventus - Atalanta
10
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Fiorentina - Roma
10
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
AC Milan - Empoli
09
Mar
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund
09
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
Arsenal - Brentford
09
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Bologna - Inter Milan
Find us on Instagram
at @feedimo to stay up to date with the latest.
Featured Video You Might Like
zWJ3MxW_HWA L1eLanNeZKg i1XRgbyUtOo -g9Qziqbif8 0vmRhiLHE2U JFCZUoa6MYE UfN5PCF5EUo 2PV55f3-UAg W3y9zuI_F64 -7qCxIccihU pQ9gcOoH9R8 g5MRDEXRk4k
Copyright © 2020 Feedimo. All Rights Reserved.