September 28, 2020

Why a Biden blowout is still the most likely result
Five weeks out from the 2020 presidential election, significant media attention is being given to the small possibility that President Donald Trump could again pull off a narrow Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote, or that even an Electoral College tie could push the election to the House. Those scenarios, though, are mainly making headlines because they're interesting fodder for the pundit class. All the data point to a big blowout victory for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.The major recent polls (Economist/YouGov: Biden +7, CNBC: Biden +9, Quinnipiac: Biden +10, NYT: Biden +8) show Biden with a truly commanding lead nationally. Equally important is how Biden leads. The 2016 election was always a much closer and more dynamic race, Trump was facing a much more unpopular opponent, and a much larger number of voters were undecided. None of those are the case this time.This year we have experienced a global pandemic which has so far killed over 200,000 Americans, a massive economic disruption, multiple Trump Administration scandals, and the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Yet Biden's large lead over Trump is basically identical to what it was at the end of last year. There is still the possibility that some new development — even bigger than those listed above — could shift the dynamics of the race, but that seems very unlikely.Biden also polls much better than Hillary Clinton ever did in the late stages of the 2016 election cycle — largely because there are significantly fewer undecided and third-party voters. In the RealClearPolitics polling average of the four-way race, Clinton's share of the vote never went over 46.2 percent while, by comparison, Biden has been bouncing right around 50 percent for the past few months with 7 percent third-party/undecided. To realistically win, Trump would need to pick up almost all the undecided voters and even flip some Biden voters.In 2016, both candidates were unpopular. The final YouGov poll found Clinton with a favorable rating of 43 percent and 56 percent unfavorable, compared to Trump's rating of 39 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable. This gave the outsider Trump a chance to win over voters who disliked both candidates. By comparison, right now Biden's favorability numbers are 45 percent to 47 percent compared to Trump at 42 percent favorable and 53 unfavorable. In addition, 52 percent of voters disapprove of how Trump has handled his Job as president, while 57 percent of voters are upset or dissatisfied with Trump. Trump effectively needs to win over voters who dislike him, disapprove of his job performance, and are simply ambivalent about Biden.To be sure, in 2016, the very limited polling in certain critical swing states was off in important ways, and the final national polling undercounted Trump's support by roughly 1-2 points. Maybe there is another systematic undercounting of Trump's support in the polling this year, and maybe late-breaking events move voters towards him, and maybe a large share of voters who disapprove of Trump's job performance can be persuaded to vote against Biden — but that is a lot of maybes.It is just as likely that Biden will outperform his already big lead. elections tend to be referendums on incumbents, which is particularly true this year. Trump's polling numbers in head-to-head matchups with Biden have closely mirrored his overall job approval numbers. At the same time, Trump's job approval has been stuck in the low 40s effectively his entire time in office. Almost unique among modern presidents, he has never appealed to the majority of the country and has basically never tried. There really is no precedent for a chronically unpopular president who never tried to reach out beyond his base.If the final election results follow this job approval pattern, Biden wins in a landslide even larger than his current polling lead. Winning by such a large margin would swamp Trump's modest advantage in the Electoral College.More stories from theweek.com Trump literally can't afford to lose the election Trump avoids tax return questions as he brings yet another truck to the White House The bigger truth revealed by Trump's taxes
Related Stories
Latest News
Top news around the world
Coronavirus Disease

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus.

Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.

Around the World

Celebrity News

> Latest News in Media

Watch It
Julia Fox defends viral ‘Uncut Gems’ interview moment: ‘I was stoned’ | Page Six Celebrity News
February 17, 2022
4m-p0_-ePd8
Alexia Echevarria pushed ‘RHOM’ producers to show more of son Frankie’s recovery | Page Six
February 17, 2022
E-wTaN9NfkI
Pete Davidson rejoins Instagram amid Kanye West drama | Page Six Celebrity News
February 17, 2022
SsC3dmsI6t4
Aaron Rodgers And Shailene Woodley Reportedly Break Up | TMZ LIVE
February 17, 2022
FoErdRE8Qe4
Chet Hanks Done Talking About Famous Parents, Becoming Personal Trainer | TMZ
February 16, 2022
5_UrULOkQ6o
Woman Stabbed at Foot Locker During Nike Shoe Release
February 16, 2022
TfuXMs1JdVg
Steph's Freaky Side, "Summer House" & "Love During Lockup"
February 17, 2022
9W_raO0zlA8
Tay or Nay, Offset's Sushi Anxiety & Nick on Monogamy
February 17, 2022
PauYHpJRA6o
Kim Kardashian & North West TWINNING in Matching Pajamas | E! News
February 17, 2022
b-_Oib6R108
Adam McKay - Hollywood Walk of Fame Ceremony
February 17, 2022
tYtzsHoOZzo
Tom Holland, Mark Wahlberg, and the Cast of 'Uncharted' Talk Most Challenging Stunts
February 15, 2022
d3ksX-SKi8c
Ryan Reynolds and Walker Scobell on ‘The Adam Project’, ‘Deadpool’, and Possible ‘Star Wars’ Role
February 16, 2022
5TxJsbJr9Dk
TV Schedule
Late Night Show
Watch the latest shows of U.S. top comedians

Sports

Latest sport results, news, videos, interviews and comments
Latest Events
04
May
CONCACAF CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Playoffs
Seattle Sounders - Pumas
04
May
USA: Major League Soccer
FC Cincinnati - Toronto FC
03
May
ENGLAND: Championship
Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest
02
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
Manchester United - Brentford
02
May
ENGLAND: Championship
Fulham - Luton
02
May
SPAIN: La Liga
Getafe - Real Betis
02
May
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt
02
May
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach - RB Leipzig
02
May
ITALY: Serie A
Atalanta - Salernitana
01
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur - Leicester City
01
May
SPAIN: La Liga
Barcelona - Mallorca
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
Roma - Bologna
01
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
West Ham United - Arsenal
01
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
Everton - Chelsea
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
Udinese - Inter Milan
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
AC Milan - Fiorentina
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
Juventus - Venezia
01
May
SPAIN: La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad
30
Apr
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Mainz - Bayern Munich
30
Apr
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Bochum
30
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Newcastle United - Liverpool
30
Apr
SPAIN: La Liga
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid
30
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Leeds - Manchester City
30
Apr
SPAIN: La Liga
Real Madrid - Espanyol
30
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Napoli - Sassuolo
28
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Manchester United - Chelsea
27
Apr
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Semifinal
Liverpool - Villarreal
27
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Bologna - Inter Milan
26
Apr
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Semifinal
Manchester City - Real Madrid
25
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Sassuolo - Juventus
24
Apr
SPAIN: La Liga
Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano
24
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Lazio - AC Milan
24
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Liverpool - Everton
24
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Chelsea - West Ham United
24
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Empoli - Napoli
23
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Brentford - Tottenham Hotspur
Find us on Instagram
at @feedimo to stay up to date with the latest.
Featured Video You Might Like
zWJ3MxW_HWA L1eLanNeZKg i1XRgbyUtOo -g9Qziqbif8 0vmRhiLHE2U JFCZUoa6MYE UfN5PCF5EUo 2PV55f3-UAg W3y9zuI_F64 -7qCxIccihU pQ9gcOoH9R8 g5MRDEXRk4k
Copyright © 2020 Feedimo. All Rights Reserved.