April 08, 2024
NBA Playoff Picture 2024: Predicting Play-In Games and Standings Entering Final Week
The final week of the 2023-24 NBA regular season has plenty of play-in tournament drama on tap. None of the four play-in spots in the Eastern and Western Conferences are set going into Tuesday's games. Even the No. 6 spot—the final automatic berth into the playoffs—is up for grabs in both conferences. The Eastern Conference play-in race is far more predictable since the Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat do not have many tough opponents left on their respective schedules. Every team from seventh to 10th in the Western Conference plays at least one other opponent in that range in the coming week. That will make for some incredible drama and cause the standings to shift multiple times before Sunday night. 1. Boston Celtics (62-16) 2. Milwaukee Bucks (47-31) 3. Orlando Magic (46-32) 4. New York Knicks (46-32) 5. Cleveland Cavaliers (46-33) 6. Indiana Pacers (45-34) Play-In Race 7. Philadelphia 76ers (44-35) 8. Miami Heat (43-35) 9. Chicago Bulls (37-41) 10. Atlanta Hawks (36-42) The real drama in the Eastern Conference comes around the sixth spot in the standings. Indiana beat Miami on Sunday to remain in front of the Heat and Philadelphia. The Sixers kept pace with the Pacers by beating the San Antonio Spurs in double overtime on Sunday. Indiana will hold on to a top-six position if it wins its final three regular-season games. A win over the freefalling Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday could move the Pacers up the standings depending on how poorly Cleveland plays this week. Cleveland's three-game losing streak is the second-longest skid among the top 10 teams in the East. A loss to Indiana would give the Pacers the head-to-head tiebreaker since Indiana won two of the first three meetings. The Cavs likely will not lose multiple games since the Memphis Grizzlies and Charlotte Hornets are on their schedule, but they could be in the play-in conversation after a loss to Indiana. Meanwhile, Philadelphia needs all of the teams in front of it to lose to get out of the play-in round. The Sixers finish with three games at home against the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets. Winning all three would give the Sixers home-court advantage in the play-in round at worst. Miami's recent losses to Philadelphia and Indiana forced it to win out to feel comfortable about its position, but it does play a back-to-back on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks. Atlanta is fighting with the Chicago Bulls to host the 9-versus-10 play-in game, and Dallas needs a win for positioning in the West. Miami will not drop from No. 8 with any losses, and a likely meeting with Philadelphia is ahead as long as Indiana does not slip up. Chicago has a more favorable final four games than Atlanta, which should help it remain in ninth place to host the Hawks in a play-in contest. Prediction: 7. Philadelphia, 8. Miami, 9. Chicago, 10. Atlanta 1. Minnesota Timberwolves (54-24) 2. Denver Nuggets (54-24) 3. Oklahoma City Thunder (53-25) 4. Los Angeles Clippers (50-28) 5. Dallas Mavericks (48-30) 6. Phoenix Suns (46-32) Play-In Race 7. New Orleans Pelicans (46-32) 8. Sacramento Kings (45-33) 9. Los Angeles Lakers (45-34) 10. Golden State Warriors (43-35) The West play-in race could change in plenty of ways in the coming week. New Orleans will be the central character of the drama because it finishes with road games against Sacramento and Golden State and a home contest against the Lakers. A three-game winning streak after a likely Tuesday win in Portland would give the Pelicans the No. 7 spot at minimum. New Orleans proved it could win a big game on Sunday against Phoenix. However, the Suns are still ahead of the Pelicans on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Phoenix's spot in the top six is not guaranteed yet either, as it faces the Clippers twice and then visits the Kings and Wolves. Luckily, a 2-2 record might be enough to clinch a top-six spot because of all the games the seventh-through-10th-ranked teams play against each other. The Lakers and Warriors square off on Tuesday in a game that is more important to Los Angeles because it only has three games left. The other play-in contenders have four games remaining. Golden State needs to make up 1.5 games on the Lakers to earn the No. 9 seed, so it must root for the Lakers to lose in New Orleans on Sunday. The Lakers will likely beat Memphis on Friday. All of the games against each other could create a bit of a stalemate in the standings that leaves everything the way it is going into Tuesday's games. Prediction: 7. New Orleans, 8. Sacramento, 9. Los Angeles Lakers, 10. Golden State
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