With multiple experts and outside observers voicing fears that 2024 could be the year of a widespread economic crash, including , a prominent and author of the best-selling many are wondering how correct these predictions are. In this context, generative conversational
Artificial intelligence ( ) systems, like (formerly Bard), the recent innovation by
Google (NASDAQ: ), have gained significant traction, offering instrumental assistance in projecting general market forecasts. To make use of these capabilities, asked Gemini if the global
economy would collapse this year, and the chatbot provided a detailed explanation, taking into account the current geopolitical situation and experts’ opinions, from a viewpoint as of April 8, 2024. Total collapse unlikely According to Gemini, “a complete collapse seems unlikely,” based on evidence such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting growth rates around 2.4% to 2.9%, and the World Economic Forum (WEF) reporting that “many economists expect a weakening but not necessarily a collapse.” At the same time, the AI tool cited the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report that the
United Nations released on January 8, 2024, which indicates that the agency expects the global economy to experience a modest slowdown, but also that it “remains on a path of recovery.” Recession more likely Meanwhile, in terms of particular elements that could factor in the unfolding economic situation, Gemini singled out the 2023 inflation, rising interest rates, and uneven economic growth across different regions, as well as citing a survey from December 2023. Specifically, according to this survey, in which economists gave their answers regarding the possibility of a in 2024, 47% believe an economic recession is likely in 2024, whereas 19% of the interviewed experts stated that a recession is very likely, as opposed to a full-blown collapse. Finally, Gemini concluded that: All things considered, the bleak prognoses of an economic crash might be on the right track, but the data assembled by Google’s AI suggests the situation might not be that desperate. That said, Gemini is still just a program, and predicting whether 2024 could see an economic crash coming is challenging.