A butterfly effect occurs throughout the NFL's predraft process, particularly when quarterbacks are in play. The quarterback position and it's potential first-round prospects serves as tentpoles for the entire class. As quarterback-starved teams start to zero in on their preferred targets with the draft nearing, every other team is affected—whether it's another squad looking to address the game's most important position or others hoping specific prospects from other groups fall to them. Projections continually evolve to better reflect the latest happenings. At this point in the year, a confluence of pro-day workouts, team visits and even prospects coming back from previous injuries can all play a part. To get a gauge how the breeze has shifted over the past month, Bleacher Report compared the March 2 consensus draft board from FantasyPros and the updated version of
NFL Mock Draft Database . Over the last month, six significant changes have occurred throughout the bulk of this cycle's draft projections. Three quarterbacks have been expected to hear their names called with the first three picks of this year's NFL draft for the entirety of the offseason. The order has been in question and remains so. Although, the picture seems to be clarifying with three weeks remaining until the actual event. USC's Caleb Williams to the
Chicago Bears with the No. 1 overall pick now seems like a lock. Intrigue lies with the second selection. A month ago, LSU's Jayden Daniels held a slight edge. Now, he should be considered the overwhelming favorite to be the choice. "The signs continue to point to Jayden Daniels being the second overall pick," ESPN's Adam Schefter said on his podcast (h/t Full Press' George Carmi ). "He seems like he's popular in the scouting community. He seems like he'd bring a lot of the attributes that the Commanders would like." With Daniels landing the D.C. area, the New
England Patriots are next on the clock. According to Mass Live's Mark Daniels , "At the combine, we reported the Patriots plan: Sign a veteran backup, trade Mac Jones and draft a QB. We haven't heard anything to suggest that's changed." Thus, the Patriots become the favorite for North Carolina's
Drake Maye by default, as they should be. Other New England will enter the 2024 season with Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as their quarterbacks. Brissett can be a rock-solid bridge quarterback. But he's not the answer, particularly when New England is in position to select a legit top-of-the-first round quarterback prospect. Jim Harbaugh tends to build his teams through the trenches. He did so with the Stanford Cardinal, San Francisco 49ers and Michigan Wolverines. Previous expectations had him doing the same with the
Los Angeles Chargers by selecting Notre Dame's Joe Alt with the fifth overall draft pick. It's hard to go against the grain, particularly when the coach tells reporters at the NFL owners meetings: "If I asked you the question of what position group depends on no other position group to be good, but every other position group depends on them to be good, what position group is that? The offensive line. The offensive line doesn't need any other position group to be good, but every other position group relies on the offensive line to be good. The D-Line will be the ones to argue back, 'we don't need to the offensive line to be good.' Do you like when the offense has a 12-play drive and field position? Building that kind of offensive line is exciting." However, a massive difference exists between an early March projection and one today. The Chargers traded stalwart wide receiver Keenan Allen on March 14 to the Chicago Bears for fourth-round draft pick. With Mike Williams' earlier release, Los Angeles' wide receiver room current consists of Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Derius Davis and Simi Fehoko. While Alt can complete the Chargers offensive line by becoming Rashawn Slater's bookend, LSU's Malik Nabers is now the overwhelming favorite for this slot (if it's not traded). Quarterback Justin Herbert is the franchise centerpiece. The Chargers must make sure he has a quality option to throw to when he drops back to pass. The offensive line as its currently constructed can hold up. Three weeks ago, the Minnesota Vikings pulled the trigger on a deal which sent second- and sixth-round picks this year, along with a 2025 second-round selection, to the Houston Texans in exchange for this year's 23rd overall pick and a seventh-round rounder. Thus, the chase began. Minnesota is big-game hunting for a quarterback. Now, the Vikings could stand pat and possibly target the likes of Washington's Michael Penix Jr . or Oregon's Bo Nix with one of the two first-round picks they currently own. A trade-up for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy is the far more likely course of action, and it's being reflected in numerous mock drafts, to the point where the national championship-winning quarterback is now the favored selection by the Vikings. "I hear the Vikings are very interested in McCarthy," The Athletic's Bruce Feldman reported. The 21-year-old prospect has basically been saddled as QB4 throughout the process even though it's clear how talented he is, because the Wolverines' passing attack was never truly featured. Coaches seem to love his attitude and
Football intelligence. "You could tell he was the alpha male on that team from a leadership standpoint," an anonymous coach told Feldman. "He was coached up well on how to make throws and make the decisions very fast. He throws very well on the run. He did have a really good O-line and a good defense, but we didn't think their wide receivers were great, and he made it all go." Minnesota is the ideal landing spot for McCarthy because he 1) fits perfectly into the offensive scheme and 2) can be coached up in three former quarterbacks in head coach Kevin O'Connell, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. The
New York Jets understand their window to win at the highest level is this season. General manager Joe Douglas has gone all-in to build around 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is coming of a ruptured Achilles tendon. . So, the Jets addressed their two biggest needs on offense with short-term solutions. Mike Williams signed a one-year deal to play opposite standout wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Meanwhile, Douglas acquired right tackle Morgan Moses in a trade from the Baltimore Ravens, then signed left tackle Tyron Smith to a one-year free-agent deal. Here's the problem: Moses and Smith are both 33 or older, while the latter hasn't played more than 13 games since the 2015 season. Offensive tackle should still be on the table as a result. But the Jets are likely looking for more of a immediate impact from the 10th overall pick. Georgia's Brock Bowers can be a massive upgrade at tight end. As such, he's now the consensus favorite for Gang Green. Tyler Conklin set a career-high last season with 671 receiving yards yet didn't find the end zone once. Whereas Bowers is one of the best tight end prospects ever. He shouldn't even be completely looked at purely as a tight end based on how he can help a passing attack. His ability to make tough grabs over the middle and create after the catch is exceptional. The Jets can still land a quality development offensive tackle prospect in the third round to learn from Smith and Moses. But the incoming tight end class is basically one-and-done with Bowers and then everyone else. In turn, New York can field its first Pro Bowl-caliber talent at tight end since Mickey Schuler in 1988. The Denver Broncos are positioned poorly to find a legitimate replacement for the team's previous starting quarterback, Russell Wilson. Obviously, the situation between Wilson and the organization became untenable, hence why he's no longer part of the squad despite a combined $85 million dead salary-cap hit over the next two seasons. Because of the large figure, the Broncos need to look toward a rookie contract as the most logical path forward. However, Denver owns the 12th overall pick and sits directly behind the Minnesota Vikings, who are already positioning themselves to trade up for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, as discussed earlier. The Broncos don't have the same firepower since the team lacks a second-round selection in this year's draft thanks to the Sean Payton trade. If the top four quarterbacks are off the board well before the draft snakes its way outside of the Top 10, the Broncos must weigh what options remain available. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix are next in line. A potential trade-down to land either might favor Denver, though Penix may have solidified himself as an earlier-than-expected first-round option after an impressive pro day. The
Las Vegas Raiders are lurking. Whereas Nix is often viewed as more of a second-round possibility. Still, a team like the Broncos can't get cute when trying to address the game's most important position. Plus, Nix's fit in Payton's system seems ideal, hence why he's now the favorite to become Denver's pick at some point. "He's known a lot for what he and Drew Brees did together," the incoming signal-caller told ESPN's Robert Griffin III . "It was quick game, get the ball out, timing stuff that I Love to do. That's what we did so great here at Oregon." Everyone will say that a 40-yard dash won't make or break a prospect. But Xavier Worthy 's record-setting 4.21-second effort at the NFL Scouting Combine turned heads, even if everybody in Indianapolis already knew he was one of the class' fastest players. Others will look at the fact that he's a sub-170-pound wide receiver and write him off as another undersized, straight-line speedster who can't translate to the NFL. Yes, he's fast. Yes, NFL teams fall in love with speed. No, he's not just a track athlete playing football. Worthy is a legit talent with the ability to snap off routes, get open and create after the catch. Interestingly, he wasn't a favorited first-round target for any NFL squad in March right after he blazed his 40. Since then, he crept his way into the mix, as the consensus pick for the Kansas City Chiefs, with the 32nd overall selection. Considering Rashee Rice's ongoing legal matters , another investment in a wide receiver, beyond the free-agent addition of Marquise Brown, may be a wise decision. But the possibility only exists if Worthy is available. He may not be. The lightning quick target already had predraft visits with the Indianapolis Colts , Pittsburgh Steelers ,
Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens . Each of those teams select between picks 15 and 30th overall. While Worthy is regularly slotted to the Chiefs, other teams around the league are clearly enamored with what his speed can bring to an offense. The 32nd overall pick may be the floor for where he's ultimately drafted.