The resignation of defence minister James Heappey from the Government this week along with education minister Rob Halfon offered little in the way of political fireworks. The two men, who plan to step down at the next election, chose not to quit in a public strop or with a poison pen letter – instead timing their exits for the last day of term. Yet, their departure is still adding to a sense of Tory decay as more than 80 MPs say they will not stand for re-election. What’s more, Heappey’s exit from the Ministry of Defence is seen to be a symptom of a wider concern in the party – defence spending . There have been repeated rumblings that Heappey was disappointed with the Budget in which the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, did not increase funds for the Armed Forces – with core defence spending on course to fall in real terms next year. And this weekend in his first interview as an ex-minister Heappey called on Rishi Sunak to raise defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP in 2030. Speak to a Tory MP about that Spring Budget and it’s a common complaint. Perhaps overly optimistically, many in the party had hoped that the fiscal event would be what boosted their fortunes ahead of the May local
elections – and what cheered party spirits. Instead, Sunak and Hunt chose to focus on national insurance cuts and received no poll bounce. Now the mood as MPs begin the Easter recess is negative bordering on mutinous. “There was an alternative way of doing it,” argues a Government aide. “Rather than tax cuts as the centre piece, I think you could argue that a boost to defence spending would have been more significant – and politically smart .” The current Government policy is to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP “as soon as economic conditions allow”. The Government is currently spending 2.27 per cent of GDP on defence. The question is when the conditions will allow. For many in the party including some ministers, they feel they already have but it is now a choice of priorities – and defence is not one of Sunak’s. When the Prime Minister appeared before the Liaison Committee this week, he refused to be drawn on whether the 2.5 target would be the offer in the Tory manifesto – suggesting it was not the time to write it. But as – in the words of Lord David Cameron – lights are flashing red on the global dashboard, can the
UK afford not to? Just days after the Budget, two of Sunak’s ministers – Anne Marie Trevelyan (foreign office) and Tom Tugendhat (security) took matters into their own hands and published an article on LinkedIn arguing it was “clear” the UK “needs to lead the way in increasing our own domestic defence and security spending commitments to 2.5 per cent and beyond”. The ministers did not get pre-approval from No 10 getting round the rules by keeping it to a
Social Media post. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps – who had been picked by No 10 for the role part for his supposed loyalty – has since said he wants to get spending to 3 per cent of GDP. However, some defence minded MPs are sceptical of him. “Grant is interested in photo opps,” claims a ministerial colleague. “Would he know where to spend 3 per cent if he had it?” The worry now is whether Sunak sees increasing spending as an
election priority. “I’ve never understood how we came up with five priorities but didn’t have defence in that five,” says a former cabinet minister. “It’s an area where we have a proud history and a story to tell on
Ukraine but he didn’t do it.” Read Next ‘I quit as a nursery teacher - I can’t afford childcare even with 60% discount’ Yet the party that can be most trusted on defence could have the edge in an election. “Ukraine is the policy area where we are often ahead of
Labour or at least level pegging – it can’t be said for much else,” says an MP. These MPs also question the Treasury picking NHS spending before defence. “A lot of our voters have come to the conclusion that ploughing money into the NHS doesn’t always lead to the right result, we’d get more credit for investing in security.” Given the election is in the same year that Trump is vying for the
White House, Ukraine’ struggles to hold off
Russia and conflict rages in the
Middle East, foreign affairs and defence matters could be a big factor. Tory strategists believe Trump looking close to a return could work in their favour as the likely disruption and uncertainty that comes with Trump 2.0 could see voters look for stability. But rather than reassure MPs, this argument is just seen as further reason to put more money into defence. Labour, too, is aware of the importance of defence and security in the election. It’s campaign directors like to tell colleagues that the party only wins when it is trusted on two things: the
economy and defence. Shadow foreign Secretary David Lammy plans to woo Trump by agreeing that more countries need to meet their spending and security commitments. But both parties will need to offer more than warm words. There could be a fiscal event before the election still – but otherwise the manifestos will be key. The Tories say theirs will be fully costed and careful in what they pledge. The shadow Treasury team is already playing a big role in going over the submissions from the shadow cabinet for the document. Some Tory MPs want the Government to hit 2.5 and then move to an ambition of 3 per cent. But there are also important conversations to have on where the focus should be – and man power. That is if Sunak makes it that far. It is still more likely than not that he will lead his party into the next election. But it shouldn’t go unnoticed that those talked up as potential candidates to step in should the May local elections lead to a move against him are
MILITARY minded ministers such as Penny Mordaunt and Tom Tugendhat. It’s an issue that both MPs and the grassroots feel strongly about. Warm words about ambitions won’t hold for long.