Even as a No. 1 seed, North Carolina seems a tad undervalued heading into its Sweet 16 matchup Thursday night with
Alabama (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS). The Tar Heels are the worst among the NCAA Tournament’s four top seeds, but they’re not as far behind the others as the public believes. Let’s take a look at this fun matchup that oddsmakers project will be the highest-scoring of the eight Sweet 16 games over the next two days. RJ Davis is a madman with middle-of-the-floor dribble and shot creation that no one in college
basketball duplicates. Armando Bacot is still among the nation’s best post-up players and rebounders. Elliot Cadeau has improved all year. Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram are vital cogs on the wing. The Heels play great interior defense, ranking top-25 nationally in two-point
shooting allowed and paint points per game allowed, while rebounding everything. North Carolina might struggle with Alabama’s elite off-ball secondary and isolation actions, but you can only hope to contain the Tide, who averaged 90.8 points per game in the regular season. The Heels have a shot at containment, given that they have the nation’s best transition denial defense and the fourth-best rim-and-3 defense by PPP allowed. Both will be monstrous against Nate Oats’ offense, which emphasizes up-tempo, rim-and-3 basketball. Conversely, North Carolina should be able to score on a high percentage of its possessions. The Tide run a drop-coverage defense with limited rim protection and rebounding. The first issue is vulnerable to Davis’ on-ball dribble- and middle-of-the-floor creation, and the latter two are vulnerable to Bacot’s post-creation and offensive rebounding. Not to mention Alabama fouls like crazy, while North Carolina draws fouls at a top-80 rate nationally. The Heels should score at will, and their defense is sturdy enough to generate enough tough stops to cover the two-possession spread, earning UNC another trip to the Elite Eight. Pick: North Carolina -4.5 (-110, FanDuel )