Allies of late
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny have suggested that
Vladimir Putin could be vulnerable following his re-election, although dissidents expressed fear that repression of opponents could become even more brutal. The President returned to power on Sunday with more than 87 per cent of the vote in an
election widely derided as a sham . Leonid Volkov, chief of staff at the Anti Corruption Foundation (ACF) – founded by Mr Navalny – said on Thursday that the inflated vote share for Mr Putin would give him a “false sense of confidence”. Dictators such as Romania’s Nicolae Ceausescu were deposed shortly after sweeping victories in compromised
elections, noted Mr Volkov, who was recently assaulted outside his home in Lithuania in an attack he attributed to the Russian regime. “Dictators with huge percentages often have a bad end,” said Mr Volkov in a video address. “The greater the demonstration of people’s love, the less love there is.” Yulia Navalnaya, Mr Navalny’s widow, issued a message calling on followers to keep fighting in the aftermath of the vote, urging them “not to brush off work because it doesn’t immediately lead to results, but to have patience and move forward”. Daniil Ken, head of the Teacher’s Alliance trade union affiliated to the Navalny network, told i he took encouragement from the “ Noon Against Putin ” campaign, in which supporters converged on polling stations at noon on Sunday to vote for opposition candidates. About 200,000 people took part and millions more saw the action on TV, he claimed. “We will try to come up with new original ideas,” said Mr Ken. The union leader said the President could become complacent after his supposed landslide victory and take measures that stir popular resentment. “Putin himself probably believes in [the result] and feels the power,” he told i . “He may take unpopular actions that he was afraid to do before the election that are necessary for the continuation of the war, such as tax increases, mobilisation, and censorship primarily against freedom of speech on the internet. “These measures will lead to an accumulation of protest sentiments and people will look for new ways to express it.” ACF representatives declined to answer questions over the role of Ms Navalnaya, widely tipped to replace her husband at the head of the organisation after his death in an Arctic
prison last month. Allies blamed the
Kremlin for his death, which Russian authorities attributed to natural causes. Russian opposition figures are increasingly adopting new security measures following Mr Navalny’s death, said Mr Ken, although activists were already aware of the risks they faced, from manufactured scandals to Kremlin assassins. “Navalny had a rule that during trips no
Women could enter his hotel room without the presence of other people,” he said. “He also stopped driving a car about 15 years ago to avoid a provocation over an accident and criminal case.” Dan Storiev, a spokesperson for Russian
Human Rights group OVD-Info, which monitors public
protests and provides legal support for participants, said he expects opposition activists to be increasingly hunted after the election by an emboldened regime. “This is a kind of Rubicon moment, a showy point of transition to show the Russian population that something has changed,” he told i . “Putin wants to turn Russian society more militaristic and authoritarian.” In a post-election speech, the Russian leader warned that “traitors” would be punished and could be dealt with as enemy combatants. Read Next Macron wants to look like a heavyweight beside Putin - but it's all PR “What’s going to come now is a hunt for traitors and a hunt for opponents of the regime,” said Mr Storiev. “They are going to keep stomping on dissent within
Russia and they are also going to look around the world,” he added, noting a string of attacks on regime opponents abroad. The Kremlin will use its supposed mandate from the election to further crush displays of dissent, the activist predicts. OVD-Info will continue its work but many more enemies of the state could be forced to flee, he believes. A Russian opposition movement is growing in the diaspora , with activist groups organising against the Kremlin and supporting dissidents back home. But Mr Storiev notes that some western governments have been reluctant to accommodate Russian regime opponents. “My message to western audiences is that if you want to combat Putin … make sure that your politicians are providing a platform and a shelter for Russian civil society representatives,” he said. Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian political analysis journal Riddle , expects the regime to escalate attacks beyond political opponents. “We will see repression against any people who go against the line, whether it’s political opposition, anyone engaged in sabotage, or the LGBT+ community,” he said, noting recent prosecution of staff at LGBT+ venues . Mr Barbashin believes Ms Navalnaya will become an effective opposition leader. “Opposition will most likely be led by Yulia Navalnaya,” he said. “She has the moral high ground because of how her husband was killed, and I think she has the best chance to get people united, most likely under an antiwar platform looking at ways to preserve [dissidents] still inside the countries and engage with Russians in exile.” The opposition movement could seek to build communication channels with ordinary Russians, develop institutions and infrastructure, and “convey some ideas about the future of Russia”, Mr Barbashin suggests. “It’s a lot about investing in the future”.