The miracle run is all but over. After an 11-game winning streak and a late-season rally, the Rockets have . At 38 wins and 40 losses, they're now from postseason contention. Although their season is going to end on a sour note, there's a lot for the team to look forward to. Center Alpheren Sengun is playing the best
basketball of his career, averaging a career-high 21.1 points on good efficiency. Jalen Green was in the league in March and showed that . Rookies Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson are also proving to be valuable contributors and have established themselves as vital members of the young Rockets core. Despite all the positive takeaways from their season, the Rockets have some tough decisions to make regarding the future of their roster, specifically their two franchise cornerstones. Can they trust that Green, who has historically been inconsistent, to sustain his performance, and if so, could he coexist and blossom alongside Sengun? Is Jalen Green a Future Star? One of the biggest positive takeaways for the Rockets this season is that Green has shown the ability to be a legitimate franchise cornerstone. During March, he averaged just under 28 points with great efficiency. Even after Sengun went down to injury, Green was able to lead the Rockets to nine additional wins in a row, including two over current playoff teams. He made extremely tough shots and excelled as a primary scoring option. In that stretch, he put up two 40-plus-point scoring performances and put up the third-highest offensive rating in the league for all players who averaged at least 25 minutes. This season, the Rockets are scoring four additional points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and are
shooting nearly three percent higher. Can Their Two Stars Coexist? After Green's hot streak, he's coming back down to earth. He's averaging 18 points on 36 percent shooting over his last four games, a far drop from the averages that nearly secured him a Player of the Month award in March. This recent decline could be due to multiple factors. First, a lot of teams are preparing for him now, and sending him double teams to prevent easy shots. Since he's not able to get to his spot as comfortably, he's not able to establish a rhythm as easily. Second, it could be due to him regressing to his normal level of play. We've seen a lot of players with similar temporary hot streaks that eventually revert to the previous level of play, and it could be the same for Green. After all, what he's been doing in March isn't normal by any means. He's hitting tough contested stepbacks and fadeaway jump shots. Considering how unsustainable those types of shots are, it's not surprising to see his percentages drop over the last couple of games. With Sengun coming back next season, the issue of Green being double-teamed should theoretically be solved. After all, Sengun draws a lot of defensive attention, among all centers in the league in on-ball gravity. However, one of the issues with this pairing has been the spacing. Sengun doesn't stretch the floor and plays closer to the basket. This means that there's always going to be defensive attention near the rim. This makes it difficult for a player like Green, who excels at utilizing his speed and athleticism to get to the rim. Jalen Green Driving Stats Before and After Sengun's Injury Drives 9.1 11.7 Driving FGA 4.8 6.2 Driving FG% 44.8 51.3 Driving Points 6.1 8.8 Since Sengun's injury, Green has been averaging more drives, driving field goal attempts, and driving points, with better efficiency. In Sengun's absence, the Rockets moved Jabari Smith Jr. to a stretch five role, and the extra space is all that was needed for Green to capitalize. However, with Sengun coming back, there's not going to be the same amount of space to operate. Houston Rockets On/Off Stats With Sengun and Green 116.62 117.31 -0.69 With Sengun and without Green 112.29 107.97 4.32 With Green and Without Sengun 102.67 111.53 -8.86 On the other hand, Green's rise in play should benefit Sengun significantly. One of the biggest issues with the Rockets this season was that opposing defenders would collapse on Sengun due to the lack of consistent scoring around him. The Rockets as a team rank bottom seven in three-point shooting, so opposing defenses were able to get away with sagging off of the shooters. What if Green's Play is Consistent? Green being an inconsistent scorer for earlier parts of the season meant that there wasn't a player that could reliably relieve pressure off of Sengun, meaning he had to settle for tougher shot attempts. If Green is able to play at the level he displayed this past March, the Rockets' offense is going to be a lot tougher to prepare against. Teams that double on Sengun would be giving Green the green light to score. Even if he doesn't have the same space to attack the rim, the decrease in defensive pressure could allow him to pull off the tough shots he's demonstrated that he's capable of pulling off. It all comes down to whether or not Green can sustain the level of play he showed glimpses of. If so, the Rockets could legitimately become a dangerous threat in the West. If not, then the Rockets are going to remain inconsistent. It's going to be interesting to see how the Rockets' management decides to navigate through their future.