June 10, 2020
Fergie time: double bubble, toil and trouble?‘Boris Boosts Bonking Britain’. That may end up being the Thursday morning tabloid headline after the prime minister’s latest lockdown relaxation. Yes, thanks to ‘support bubbles’, single people young and old can from this weekend stay overnight with lovers, Friends and relatives - for the first time in nearly three months. The ‘sex ban’ will be a little less, ahem, rigid this Saturday.
Should ‘Professor Lockdown’ Share The Blame For The UK’s Slow Response To Covid?
If this practice had been in place earlier in the pandemic, Professor Neil Ferguson - famously exposed for breaching the rules with visits from his new girlfriend - would still be a member of the Sage group of scientists advising the government. The ‘bonking boffin’’s nocturnal arrangements would be nobody’s business but his, and the public wouldn’t bat an eyelid.‌
Prof Ferguson still managed to grab the headlines today, as he told MPs that imposing lockdown just one week earlier would have halved the UK’s death toll from Covid-19. The dramatic claim felt like a shared mea culpa rather than any attempt to slight the PM, but it nevertheless managed to make Boris Johnson look uneasy at his No.10 press conference.
Not for nothing did the PM highlight that “Professor Ferguson was a member of Sage at the time, as he fully accepts.” It was a point he made not once, but twice. And it’s true that the academic was part of the group that appeared to be slow to realise just how rapidly the virus was spreading in March.
Ferguson’s Imperial College modelling was of course responsible for the government finally gripping the enormity of the problem. Its warning of up to 250,000 deaths made everyone sit up and take notice and within days, the lockdown was finally imposed. Without it, we would be in even more dire straits than now.
Yet the UK’s death numbers still ended up among the highest in the world, and today his team’s own modelling came under fire. In a blog for HuffPost UK and on Radio 4’s More or Less statistics programme, Bath University’s Kit Yates revealed that some members of the Sage subgroup SPI-M were worried in early March about the ‘doubling rate’ for Covid.
These modellers estimated that the virus was taking roughly three days to double its infections, yet “their estimates never found consensus within the group”. This rival model was never even referred up the chain to the full Sage. Why? Because Ferguson’s Imperial College model had “more influence over the consensus than others”, members of SPI-M have told Yates. And that model was clear: the doubling rate was a much slower five to six days.
This was based on an R number of around 2.4 (as it turned out a serious underestimate) of the virus, which was itself grounded in data from Wuhan, China. Those arguing for an alternative to the Imperial model said you didn’t even need to include data from Italy to get a shorter doubling rate, you just had to look at early data in the UK itself. Remember this is not hindsight, it’s what was being argued at the time by those minority voices on SPI-M.
British data available on March 14 - nine days before lockdown - showed the doubling rate was already a scary three days. But on March 16, guided by Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty (relying on the Ferguson model published the same day), Johnson announced that “without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days”. That underestimate was itself “drastically wrong”, Kit Yates says.‌
Ferguson today conceded he had got his own 20,000 estimate for deaths-after-lockdown wrong, because he “underestimated how far this country was into the epidemic”. Yet he also had this key admission: “We knew the epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced.” We ‘knew’, he said. But if he knew, why didn’t he recalibrate his own model to get us into lockdown quicker?
These questions are clearly live ones for Vallance and Whitty. At the press conference today, the chief medical officer said part of the problem was that “we had very limited information about this virus”. He added there was “a long list of things we need to look at very seriously” including why testing wasn’t up to speed early on. Vallance said “the epidemic is shrinking, but not fast”, and important questions “still needed to be addressed”.
Johnson however refused to express any regret for the failure to lockdown earlier, ducking international comparisons once more and adding “a lot of these things are still premature”. It was a reminder that the ‘three amigos’ own social bubble that has existed since the start of this pandemic is now under strain.
Like one of those giant soap bubbles seen at kids’ birthday parties, the Johnson-Whitty-Vallance partnership has swirled and stretched for nearly three months (Vallance kept it intact with a new, cautious endorsement for the PM’s pressure for removal of the 2m rule).
That bubble is now a source of toil and trouble, and it may pop at some point. If it does, today proved that it may be the scientists - including Neil Ferguson - who have their own questions to answer along with Boris Johnson.Quote Of The Day“This government has put its arms around people in its crisis and done its best to help.”
Boris Johnson hits back at Keir Starmer saying he should not be ‘proud’ of UK covid death figures.Wednesday Cheat SheetThe PM revealed that Gavin Williamson will next week unveil plans for “a big summer of catch-up” for pupils hit hard by school closures, as experts warned of a ‘tsunami’ of anxiety for kids over the coming year.
Johnson announced £63m in social support for the poorest children, half of what it would cost to extend free meals to all who need them this summer.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said Britain’s economy was likely to slump by 11.5% in 2020 - the worst in the world. It could contract by 14% if there is a second wave of Covid-19 later this year.
The number of deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK has passed 52,000, latest data showed.
Expanded and targeted Coronavirus testing will be given to frontline workers in “high-contact professions”, such as bus drivers, the PM revealed.
Private hospitals requisitioned by the NHS will carry out cardiac operations and perform chemotherapy to help reduce waiting lists. Zoos and safari parks will open from June 15 in the latest lockdown easing.What I’m ReadingLabour Is Ahead of The Tories On Six Key Measures - Peter Kellner
Why I Broke With Boris Johnson - Tim MontgomerieGot A Tip?Send tips, stories, quotes, pics, plugs or gossip to waugh.zone@huffpost.com. Subscribe To Commons PeopleEach week, the HuffPost UK Politics team unpack the biggest stories from Westminster and beyond. Search for Commons People wherever you listen to podcasts and subscribe.Related... Poorer Pupils Face 'Tsunami' Of Inequality In Covid Crisis, MPs Told Boris Johnson Refuses To Express Regret Over Timing Of Lockdown Lockdown A Week Earlier Would Have Halved UK Coronavirus Death Toll, Says Neil Ferguson
Related Stories
Latest News
Top news around the world
Academy Awards

‘Oppenheimer’ Reigns at Oscars With Seven Wins, Including Best Picture and Director

Get the latest news about the 2024 Oscars, including nominations, winners, predictions and red carpet fashion at 96th Academy Awards

Around the World

Politic
Mary Trump 'energized' as uncle 'Donald's campaign spirals into chaos'
Mar 29, 2024
Donald Trump's campaign is in chaos, and his niece says she's energized.Mary Trump, the niece of the former president and a psychologist by trade, has previously been critical of her uncle.On Thursday, she said her uncle's failures are adding up.ALSO READ: A neuroscientist reveals how Trump and Biden's cognitive impairments are different"As the RNC’s fundraising falters and Donald’s campaign spirals into chaos, I am energized!" she said in a Substack post.She then continued:"When Donald dominates the news cycle, it’s hard not to feel overwhelmed. Every bad headline has a negative impact. But then I remember something crucial: There’s usually more to the story than meets the eye. I’m determined to cut through the media noise and share with you all the good that happened this week. These are the headlines we need to remain energized and hopeful that the media largely ignored."Mary Trump goes on to highlight President Joe Biden's recent fundraising hauls."President Biden’s $155 million+ war chest has just received another turbo boost, bringing the total of cash on hand to at least $180 million. (By comparison, between his campaign and the RNC, Donald barely has over $50 million — and continues to drain the accounts to cover his absolutely staggering legal expenses)," she wrote. "This is a development that could significantly increase Biden’s ability to influence the narrative in crucial swing states."This, she says, also tells us a lot about voter excitement for Biden."While critics have expressed doubts about the degree to which the Democratic base is fired up as compared to 2020, today’s $25 million fundraiser, raised with donations ranging from $250 to $500,000, should put any doubts to rest — yes, we are absolutely behind President Biden and Vice President Harris and we’re in this fight until the end," she wrote.Read the full post here.
READ MORE
Celebrity News

> Latest News in Media

Watch It
Ruby Franke’s Husband REVEALS Alleged Rules He Had to Follow at Home | E! News
March 28, 2024
_mU-3lE2QwI
#KenanThompson speaks out following the #QuietonSet documentary. (🎥: Tamron Hall Show) #shorts
March 28, 2024
8AGP-Gfw_Ek
King Charles Shares "Great Sadness" at Missing Royal Appearance | E! News
March 28, 2024
lyizFqf1kQY
Martha Reeves Walk of Fame Ceremony
March 27, 2024
QzyezumEPtQ
Eminem, 50 Cent & Snoop Dogg Present Dr. Dre with a Star on the Walk of Fame
March 19, 2024
4bNLs1hxVp8
Opening Remarks for the Variety Summit October 20th, 2023 Jay Penske
March 18, 2024
c6Z707iLq8E
Montell Jordan Dishes On Young MC Wedding, 'This Is How Date Night' Plans | TMZ
March 28, 2024
G3SMExj-qio
Davina Potratz Says TV Not Helping 'Selling Sunset' Relationship Woes | TMZ
March 28, 2024
D4piy4GNm4k
Logan Paul Rips Graham Bensinger Over Documentary, You Promised Apple TV+ | TMZ Live
March 28, 2024
NiSDpZhZklQ
Prince William pinned royal medal to Spice Girl Mel B’s boobs #shorts
March 28, 2024
O1cQ0UW9pco
Jennifer Garner shares ‘hard’ part of raising her and Ben Affleck’s kids
March 28, 2024
3Q7mZaVUdgc
50 Cent's ex Daphne Joy named as an alleged sex worker in Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs lawsuit #shorts
March 28, 2024
yhLFI8DG9rM
TV Schedule
Late Night Show
Watch the latest shows of U.S. top comedians

Sports

Latest sport results, news, videos, interviews and comments
Latest Events
28
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Playoffs - Women
PSG W - Hacken W
28
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Playoffs - Women
Barcelona W - SK Brann W
27
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Playoffs - Women
Chelsea W - Ajax W
27
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Playoffs - Women
Lyon W - SL Benfica W
17
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Atletico Madrid - Barcelona
17
Mar
ENGLAND: FA Cup
Manchester United - Liverpool
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Inter Milan - Napoli
17
Mar
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt
17
Mar
ENGLAND: FA Cup
Chelsea - Leicester City
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Roma - Sassuolo
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Verona - AC Milan
17
Mar
ITALY: Serie A
Juventus - Genoa
16
Mar
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Darmstadt - Bayern Munich
16
Mar
ENGLAND: FA Cup
Manchester City - Newcastle United
16
Mar
ENGLAND: Premier League
Fulham - Tottenham Hotspur
16
Mar
SPAIN: La Liga
Osasuna - Real Madrid
13
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1/8 Final
Atletico Madrid - Inter Milan
12
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1/8 Final
Barcelona - Napoli
12
Mar
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1/8 Final
Arsenal - Porto
Find us on Instagram
at @feedimo to stay up to date with the latest.
Featured Video You Might Like
zWJ3MxW_HWA L1eLanNeZKg i1XRgbyUtOo -g9Qziqbif8 0vmRhiLHE2U JFCZUoa6MYE UfN5PCF5EUo 2PV55f3-UAg W3y9zuI_F64 -7qCxIccihU pQ9gcOoH9R8 g5MRDEXRk4k
Copyright © 2020 Feedimo. All Rights Reserved.