It was in late March that it first emerged Priti Patel was pressing for quarantine to restrict arrivals coming to the
UK from high-risk countries like
Iran, the US and
China but it was not until late last month that it was officially announced. Home Office figures show 18.1 million people entered the UK between January 1 and end of March without any health checks, including people from
Coronavirus hotspot countries. Of these, just 273 were quarantined and as many as 20,000 infected people may have entered the UK in that time. The question this data begs is why quarantine is being introduced now when the Government’s own chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance says it is most effective if the infection rate in the receiving country is lower than those from which they are arriving. Imposing quarantine made sense when at the start of the pandemic
Britain lagged behind
Italy, Spain,
France and China but now our rate is higher than theirs. Professor Robert Dingwall, a member of the SAGE advisory group, summed it up: “We would really need to get the level [of infection] significantly further down before quarantine started to become a useful tool.” This has led Michael O’Leary, the boss of Ryanair which is taking joint legal action against quarantine, to claim it is a “political stunt” especially when our half-hearted approach is compared with other countries’ quarantines. Unlike
New Zealand, which yesterday declared itself coronavirus-free and quarantined people in Government-paid-for hotels, international arrivals to the UK are largely being trusted to self-isolate for 14 days, with minimal checks on their movements. Ministers maintain it is necessary to prevent a second wave of coronavirus which would not only be economically damaging if lockdown had to be re-imposed but also politically devastating for trust in the Government’s ability to manage a major crisis. But Henry Smith, the Tory MP who chairs the new cross-party Future of Aviation group, believes it is more a case of Government stubbornness and a desire to provide a fearful public psychological reassurance “rather than hard public health evidence.” This is supported by ministers and officials frequently citing polls showing as many as 73 per cent of the public say fear of coronavirus will stop them flying this summer. “A feature of most Governments in my experience is that once they have announced something publicly even if it subsequently emerges that it is not such a great idea, they don’t back down for a period. It’s almost a matter of face-saving,” he said. Which comes to the theory that quarantine will help fuel a surge in staycations to help revive the ailing UK tourist industry. Announcing an investment package to support UK holidays, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden declared: "I much prefer
British holidays to holidays overseas.” Others suspect a more machiavellian reasoning that to adopt a more scientifically valid approach by barring visitors from high-risk countries while allowing in those from low-risk states would anger the US and
Donald Trump at a key moment in trade talks. What most agree is that Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s senior adviser, has been a key driver of the quarantine policy. Paul Charles, one of the organisers behind the Quash Quarantine campaign chief executive of PC Consultancy, said: “This comes from Dominic Cummings fighting a pro
Brexit policy. There is no doubt that is what is behind this. There is no scientific evidence. “Dominic Cummings and Priti Patel are using this as a tactic within the EU negotiations to be able to prove to the EU how powerful the British consumer is to the European countries. “By stopping them from going abroad this summer, they are hurting European economies because the British are the number one tourists market in
Spain and Italy.” With the Tory MPs, airports, airlines and more than 500 of the biggest names in the travel industry now ranged against the “economically-damaging” quarantine, there is a growing expectation it will be watered down, if not scrapped, to salvage at least some of the remaining summer holiday season.