January 31, 2020

A Bernie Sanders Win in Iowa Could Prolong the Democratic Primary Fight
(Bloomberg) -- The increasing likelihood that Bernie Sanders could win Monday’s first-in-the-nation caucus threatens to fundamentally redraw the path to the Democratic presidential nomination and challenge the conventional wisdom that there are only “three tickets out of Iowa.”Iowa often acts more as a bar bouncer than a kingmaker, culling the field but not anointing a leader. Candidates strive to finish in at least the top three to seize some momentum as they speed toward later nominating contests.But there are reasons to question whether that thinking still applies. Four candidates are closely clustered at the top of the polls. National front-runner Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Senator Elizabeth Warren are all polling well enough to have a chance at securing delegates.“You may need more than a four-passenger car for all these folks to get out of here,” said Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price at a Bloomberg News breakfast of political reporters Friday. He said as many as six could move on, including Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang.A top finish would give Sanders, a senator from Vermont, an early lead going into New Hampshire, a state that gave him a 22-point win over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a consistent lead in 2020. And wins in both of the first two contests would provide him undeniable momentum. But he is a polarizing figure in the Democratic Party, with both fierce supporters and voters who find his ideas too liberal to be viable.That could prompt a “Stop Sanders” movement -- putting increasing pressure on lower-polling candidates to drop out and throw their support behind a more moderate alternative.“Things tend to boil down to a person who’s leading, and the alternative to the person who’s leading,” said political scientist Josh Putnam, an expert on party nominations who runs the blog Frontloading HQ. “There are differences in every cycle, but these things tend to operate in a similar fashion.”Yet it’s not like any of the three moderates in the race -- Biden, Buttigieg or Klobuchar -- are ready to fold and anoint one of the others as the Bernie-stopper.The most recent RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls shows Sanders leading Biden by 3.2 percentage points. But polls aren’t unanimous: One Monmouth poll Wednesday had Biden leading by 2 points, well within the margin of error.Also complicating the storyline are rule changes that will give greater transparency into the performance of the entire field. In previous years, Iowa reported only the number of state delegates each candidate was expected to win. This time, the party will reveal how many Iowans backed each candidate in the first round of voting — even if that candidate didn’t meet the 15% threshold that’s a major hurdle for lower-polling candidates.Those reporting rules, written in the aftermath of Sanders’ complaints about his narrow loss in Iowa in 2016, could ironically blunt the impact of his finish this year. Candidates who come in second, third or even fourth in the final tally could claim much better standing if they do well in the first round.Still, Iowa punditry is partly an expectations game. A front-runner who stumbles into second place can be judged more harshly than a second-tier candidate who unexpectedly comes in third. So the candidates are already working to blunt any blow from a poor showing.Despite investing early and extensively in an Iowa organization, Warren is not polling well, and her campaign is trying to make clear she will carry on regardless.“We expect this to be a long nomination fight and have built our campaign to sustain well past Super Tuesday and stay resilient no matter what breathless media narratives come when voting begins,” campaign manager Roger Lau wrote in a memo last week.Yang said this week that regardless of how he finishes in Iowa, he expects to do even better in New Hampshire — where the state’s libertarian streak might be more receptive to his message.Iowa awards 41 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, or just a little more than 1% of the total delegates. But its importance far outweighs the delegate count, given it is the first actual votes of the 2020 election year and gives Americans a chance to see which candidates are living up to their claim of electability.A Front-loaded CalendarMost candidates may have little incentive to drop out after Iowa, regardless of their showing, given that contests in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina quickly follow in February.Biden has built a firewall in South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary, where his support among black Democrats could make up for any early stumbles. And it’s not just Biden: The Martin Luther King Day events there this month became virtually mandatory for any serious candidate for president.“South Carolina has come into its own this time,” said Elaine Kamarck, author of “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.” “It’s the last, best stop before Super Tuesday.”Super Tuesday — a 14-state primary on March 3, three days after South Carolina — will award 34% of all delegates. And unlike Republicans, who allow states to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally. Any candidate getting at least 15% — statewide or in a congressional district — is eligible to win delegates.That could increase the likelihood that the front-runner could divide and conquer the opposition.“Let me put it this way: The Democrats can choose to repeat the Republican folly of 2016,” said Kamarck, a member of the Democratic National Committee’s rules committee. “They all stayed in the race. They did not rally around the alternative, and Donald Trump became the nominee.”Another harbinger of a drawn-out nomination fight: money.The importance of Iowa is as much about fund-raising as it is about delegates, said Jeff Link, a Democratic Iowa political strategist.Klobuchar, a senator from neighboring Minnesota, may feel the most pressure if she doesn’t do well, but Warren and Buttigieg could also struggle with donors if they have a poor showing,” Link said.But candidates sustained by small-dollar donors — like Sanders and Yang — can keep going as long as the recurring monthly donations continue.“If Bernie got seventh, he’d move on,” Link said.And the two billionaires in the race — Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg — have already spent hundreds of millions on states that vote after Iowa and New Hampshire. Bloomberg is skipping the early states entirely and isn’t seeking any delegates until March 3.Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.Age, too, might be a factor in keeping more candidates in the race longer. Younger candidates often have more incentive to drop out early in the interests of party unity -- and their political futures. For candidates over 70 — Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg and Warren — waiting four to eight years for another chance at higher office is an unlikely option.(Adds quote from Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price in fourth paragraph)\--With assistance from Ryan Teague Beckwith and Misyrlena Egkolfopoulou.To contact the reporters on this story: Gregory Korte in Des Moines at gkorte@bloomberg.net;Jennifer Jacobs in Washington at jjacobs68@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Magan CraneFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Related Stories
Latest News
Top news around the world
Coronavirus Disease

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus.

Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.

Around the World

Celebrity News

> Latest News in Media

Watch It
Julia Fox defends viral ‘Uncut Gems’ interview moment: ‘I was stoned’ | Page Six Celebrity News
February 17, 2022
4m-p0_-ePd8
Alexia Echevarria pushed ‘RHOM’ producers to show more of son Frankie’s recovery | Page Six
February 17, 2022
E-wTaN9NfkI
Pete Davidson rejoins Instagram amid Kanye West drama | Page Six Celebrity News
February 17, 2022
SsC3dmsI6t4
Aaron Rodgers And Shailene Woodley Reportedly Break Up | TMZ LIVE
February 17, 2022
FoErdRE8Qe4
Chet Hanks Done Talking About Famous Parents, Becoming Personal Trainer | TMZ
February 16, 2022
5_UrULOkQ6o
Woman Stabbed at Foot Locker During Nike Shoe Release
February 16, 2022
TfuXMs1JdVg
Steph's Freaky Side, "Summer House" & "Love During Lockup"
February 17, 2022
9W_raO0zlA8
Tay or Nay, Offset's Sushi Anxiety & Nick on Monogamy
February 17, 2022
PauYHpJRA6o
Kim Kardashian & North West TWINNING in Matching Pajamas | E! News
February 17, 2022
b-_Oib6R108
Adam McKay - Hollywood Walk of Fame Ceremony
February 17, 2022
tYtzsHoOZzo
Tom Holland, Mark Wahlberg, and the Cast of 'Uncharted' Talk Most Challenging Stunts
February 15, 2022
d3ksX-SKi8c
Ryan Reynolds and Walker Scobell on ‘The Adam Project’, ‘Deadpool’, and Possible ‘Star Wars’ Role
February 16, 2022
5TxJsbJr9Dk
TV Schedule
Late Night Show
Watch the latest shows of U.S. top comedians

Sports

Latest sport results, news, videos, interviews and comments
Latest Events
04
May
CONCACAF CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Playoffs
Seattle Sounders - Pumas
04
May
USA: Major League Soccer
FC Cincinnati - Toronto FC
03
May
ENGLAND: Championship
Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest
02
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
Manchester United - Brentford
02
May
ENGLAND: Championship
Fulham - Luton
02
May
SPAIN: La Liga
Getafe - Real Betis
02
May
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt
02
May
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach - RB Leipzig
02
May
ITALY: Serie A
Atalanta - Salernitana
01
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur - Leicester City
01
May
SPAIN: La Liga
Barcelona - Mallorca
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
Roma - Bologna
01
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
West Ham United - Arsenal
01
May
ENGLAND: Premier League
Everton - Chelsea
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
Udinese - Inter Milan
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
AC Milan - Fiorentina
01
May
ITALY: Serie A
Juventus - Venezia
01
May
SPAIN: La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad
30
Apr
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Mainz - Bayern Munich
30
Apr
GERMANY: Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Bochum
30
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Newcastle United - Liverpool
30
Apr
SPAIN: La Liga
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid
30
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Leeds - Manchester City
30
Apr
SPAIN: La Liga
Real Madrid - Espanyol
30
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Napoli - Sassuolo
28
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Manchester United - Chelsea
27
Apr
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Semifinal
Liverpool - Villarreal
27
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Bologna - Inter Milan
26
Apr
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Semifinal
Manchester City - Real Madrid
25
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Sassuolo - Juventus
24
Apr
SPAIN: La Liga
Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano
24
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Lazio - AC Milan
24
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Liverpool - Everton
24
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Chelsea - West Ham United
24
Apr
ITALY: Serie A
Empoli - Napoli
23
Apr
ENGLAND: Premier League
Brentford - Tottenham Hotspur
Find us on Instagram
at @feedimo to stay up to date with the latest.
Featured Video You Might Like
zWJ3MxW_HWA L1eLanNeZKg i1XRgbyUtOo -g9Qziqbif8 0vmRhiLHE2U JFCZUoa6MYE UfN5PCF5EUo 2PV55f3-UAg W3y9zuI_F64 -7qCxIccihU pQ9gcOoH9R8 g5MRDEXRk4k
Copyright © 2020 Feedimo. All Rights Reserved.