WINTERSET, Iowa -- Nancy Courtney displays a
Joe Biden sign in her yard, makes phone calls for his campaign and supports the former vice president "100%," she said. But the sluggish state of Biden's organization in her city of Burlington, Iowa, had her fuming one recent evening."In Burlington, they are duds," said Courtney, an activist who is married to the
Democratic chairman in Des Moines County. "I will help, but there's no excitement there. There's nothing. I will do whatever it takes to get him elected, but I can't go down there when there's nothing going on."Bob Kling, a city councilman in Indianola, just south of Des Moines, was promoted by the Biden campaign as a prominent local endorser. But asked about Biden's standing in his state, Kling was blunt: "Not as great as he was. Buttigieg is kind of taking the lead in the polls," he said, referring to Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.Since late summer, Biden, the early front-runner in the Democratic primary, has faced an increasingly difficult path in Iowa -- dropping in the polls and struggling with an enthusiasm gap and an inclination among undecided caucusgoers to consider all options. Now, 10 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, even his own supporters in the state are growing more worried about his prospects.The heightened anxiety comes as the candidate and campaign are raising expectations, through new investments of time and resources, about his ability to compete here, an implicit acknowledgment that a substantial loss here could be a significant early setback. Sunday, his campaign sent a fundraising email that said, "we need to play to win in Iowa," the latest, in the last week, in a barrage of fundraising emails that focus on the state. And Saturday Biden declared that he would win the caucuses as he accepted highly coveted endorsements from former Gov. Tom Vilsack and his wife, Christie Vilsack, a prominent party leader.The emphasis is a striking departure from the messaging earlier in the fall, when his campaign repeatedly suggested he did not need to win the state to secure the Democratic nomination.Yet voters at Biden's events, along with county chairs and party strategists, characterize his on-the-ground organization as scattershot, visibly present in some counties but barely detectable in others. His events are often relatively small and sometimes subdued affairs, and in a state where enthusiasm can make or break a candidate on caucus night -- a big part of caucusing centers on persuading friends and neighbors -- Biden's operation has found it difficult to build contagious excitement, these
Democrats say.There is also the sense among many Iowa Democrats that Biden, who entered the race later than many of his rivals, has been less engaged in the state than his top rivals. He has made roughly 50 stops in Iowa since joining the race in April, according to the Des Moines Register's candidate tracker, far fewer than many of his opponents. "This is prime political season in Iowa and most candidates are spending a good deal of time visiting Iowa," said Joey Norris, the Democratic chair in Montgomery County, Iowa, where Buttigieg plans to campaign on Monday. "The Biden campaign has been notably absent."Now, Biden's campaign is racing to improve his standing in the state -- hosting several campaign events with the Vilsacks over the weekend, and planning an eight-day swing by bus through the state after
Thanksgiving and a return later in December.Biden's team argues that his presence in the state is comparable to that of his rivals: The campaign claims 26 offices across the state, more than 100 staff members, and it plans to continue adding staff and resources. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign claims more than 20 offices, and Buttigieg's has 29 with more to come; both cite roughly the same number of paid staffers as Biden.Biden's bus tour is expected to include both town hall-style events and activities with volunteers and precinct captains, like visits to phone banks and perhaps some door knocking. The counties he will visit, many of them largely rural, are home to working-class voters who often connect with Biden, and Biden will need to overperform in those areas on Feb. 3. The campaign is also closely focused on ensuring Biden hits the threshold for accruing delegates across the state."We need to candidly be able to keep pace, we feel like we're going to be able to do that," Pete Kavanaugh, Biden's deputy campaign manager, said. "You can tell where campaigns are focusing based on where their candidates are. And, you know, we're going to have a pretty heavy schedule here in December, starting with the bus tour and heading into January and February."Biden's team argues that the former vice president, who is stronger in later-voting and more diverse states, has been trying hard to prevail in Iowa but also sees multiple paths to the nomination. Still, some advisers and allies are aware that a poor showing in Iowa could be crushing to a campaign that is premised on the notion that Biden is the most electable candidate against President Donald Trump. Because New Hampshire, which follows Iowa in the primary calendar, historically favors candidates from neighboring states, the pressure is on here.Buttigieg presents an immediate threat to Biden. While polls show him struggling with voters of color in later-voting states, in Iowa he draws supporters among moderates who like Biden but worry about his age, his tendency to misspeak and his uneven debate performances. And because of a cash crunch this fall, Biden was off the Iowa airwaves for weeks while Buttigieg, flush with cash, blanketed them with ads.The Biden campaign says it has now reserved around $4 million in airtime through the caucuses and will likely add more.Biden's diminished standing here was highlighted in a recent Des Moines Register/CNN poll, which showed Biden with 15% support -- far behind Buttigieg and effectively tied with Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.A pro-Biden super PAC, which has conducted polling in Iowa and plans to soon start running ads here, recently conducted focus groups in the state -- and it was apparent Buttigieg's ads had broken through to participants, according to a person familiar with the super PAC's activities.Jordan Miller, 33, drove about an hour from Des Moines to Winterset to see Biden Friday night. Miller, a waitress, supported President
Barack Obama before flipping to Trump in 2016 -- and Biden is assiduously courting those voters. But after the event, she said Buttigieg was her first choice."With Biden, he does a really great job speaking with crowds like this," she said of the small venue. "I'm not impressed with him in the debates. He stumbles."The Biden campaign sees the Iowa contest as fluid and uncertain, and his allies note that Buttigieg, now a polling leader for the first time, has not yet faced the sustained scrutiny that Biden and Warren have.As he endorsed Biden at a Des Moines rally, Tom Vilsack cited Biden's experience and cast him as an empathetic figure who can connect in critical general
election battleground states."Here's why," said Vilsack, who along with his wife supported Biden's first presidential bid in the 1988 campaign. "Because we know him. We like him. Why is it that we know him and like him? Because he's a middle-class guy.""His success wasn't built on daddy's money," he added to applause.In the recent Register poll, 52% of likely Democratic caucusgoers said they were almost certain or fairly confident that Biden would beat Trump in the general election.And party officials often hark back to 2004 -- a year in which there was also a
Republican incumbent -- when Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, a staid moderate, prevailed in the caucuses despite signs in the months before that Howard Dean, the feisty former governor of Vermont, was surging."He has a lot of supporters who have said things to me like, 'My heart is with Booker but my head is with Biden,'" said Peter Leo, the Democratic chair in rural Carroll County.Leo, who has endorsed Warren, said Biden's field office in his county is "right on the main drag," which increases the campaign's visibility. "On the ground what that looks like to me is he's got staff working, he's got volunteers working," Leo said.His remarks underscore how uneven Biden's campaign is across the state. In some places, like Dubuque County, his operation has expanded in recent weeks.But in others, like Wapello County, a blue-collar region in southeastern Iowa, some party officials say Biden's campaign has a more modest presence. "I'm very confused by how small the Biden field operation is in this part of the state," said Zach Simonson, the Democratic chair in Wapello County. "It's very much his kind of turf."Dan Callahan, the Democratic chair in Buchanan County, said he expected Biden to finish in the top three in the state but suggested that his support had stagnated, in part because he can appear "unfocused and less energetic" when he goes off script at events."Part of Biden's problem is that we have so many options to choose from," Callahan said. "His followers are dedicated but he isn't attracting new voters like some of the other candidates."Many of Biden's supporters find his speaking style authentic and relatable -- but his tendency to misspeak led to some confusing guidance for Iowans at an event in Dubuque last month."I'm asking you to take a look -- I'm asking for your help," Biden said. "Commit to caucusing for me on February the fourth."The caucuses are scheduled for the previous day.This article originally appeared in The
New York Times.(C) 2019 The New York Times Company