THE complete disintegration of the European Union (EU) and the West over the next two decades is a serious proposition, according to a shock internal report drawn up by the German Army.
An extensive 102-page report, called ‘Strategic Forecast 2040’ was published by the head of the Ministry of Defence at the end of February this year but was kept then kept under wraps, but has now been seen by the German weekly newspaper Der Spiegel.
The report outlines six scenarios for how social trends and international conflicts are likely to play out and influence German security.
The Bundeswehr plays out how social trends and international conflicts could influence German security policy in the coming decades in the confidential document.
In one of the six scenarios ("The Collapse of the European Union and Germany in Reactive Mode"), the authors assume a "multiple confrontation".
The future projection describes a world in which the international order erodes after "decades of instability", the value systems worldwide drift apart and globalisation is stopped.
The Bundeswehr strategists writes: ”EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, and more states have left the community. Europe has lost its global competitiveness.
"The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflict-prone world has dramatically changed the security environment of Germany and Europe."
In the fifth scenario ("West against East"), some eastern EU countries have frozen the state of European integration while others have "joined the Eastern bloc".
In the fourth ("multipolar competition") extremism is on the rise and there are EU partners who "even occasionally seem to seek a specific approach to Russia's 'state capitalist model' ".
The document expressly makes no prognosis, but all scenarios are "plausible with the time horizon 2040".
The report would appear to throw cold water over those in the EU who want far greater integration, including the establishment of a European-wide army.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for extensive integration of the EU countries at the end of September, saying a “profound transformation” of the bloc was needed.
Mr Macron called for he introduction of EU identity cards, a shared defence budget and a European military intervention force.
He also wanted a shared budget for eurozone countries and an EU-wide asylum agency to help tackle the migration crisis.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has also said that a joint military force would add “additional weight to the European foreign and security policy”.