November 01, 2019
Tropical systems will continue to be the source of wet weather in India through the first full week of November.Maha, now a severe cyclonic storm that formed in the Arabian Sea on Wednesday, has slowly moved in a northwest direction while continuing to strengthen over the last few days.Maha is currently packing winds up to 110 km/h (68 mph), equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans.
Tropical Cyclone Maha to threaten flooding, damaging winds in western India by middle of next week
The above satellite image shows Maha spinning off the western shores of India on Friday, 1 November. (Photo/NASA) Many of the typical impacts expected from a such a strong system have been kept at bay, due to Maha's offshore path. While staying parallel to the western coast of India, the strongest winds have remained over open water, with occasional downpours reaching western parts of the country."The northwesterly track is expected to continue for Maha into Monday, keeping most of the wind and rain offshore," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.Gradual strengthening into a very severe cyclonic storm is expected during this time, which is comparable to a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean.However, by Tuesday, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that Maha will hook eastward and head for the Gujarat region of western India.While southern and coastal parts of Gujarat may get some of the outer rain bands from Maha into Monday night, the heaviest rainfall will wait until later Tuesday and Wednesday.
"When Maha moves closer to the Indian coast, it's likely to still be a very severe cyclonic storm, bringing increasingly dangerous winds and flooding rainfall," added Houk.While the proximity to land may ultimately weaken Maha before it makes landfall, gusty winds are likely to cause tree damage as well as power outages.Rounds of tropical downpours and locally heavy rainfall looks to stretch from the Gujarat coast to southern and eastern Rajasthan as well as northern Madhya Pradesh into Thursday. This amount of rainfall can amount to flooding, especially in poorly drained or low-lying areas.Both the rain and wind are likely to cause travel disruptions for many in the region.The rest of the western shores of India will continue to endure daily downpours next week as onshore flow brings moisture in from the Arabian Sea.Maha will not be the last of the tropical influences on India in early November.Meteorologists have been monitoring the lingering energy from what was once Tropical Storm Matmo, a tropical system that which crossed the western Pacific Ocean and made landfall in Vietnam late in October.The concern is that as the energy emerges into the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal late next week, it could redevelop into a tropical system."While such a development could spell more tropical rainfall for parts of India, any impacts felt to the country are likely to wait until somewhere around Nov. 9," said Houk.Until that time, most of the rainfall will remain over open waters, while some showers reach parts of Myanmar as well as the Adnaman and Nicobar Islands.
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