Up until the point when the Letwin Amendment was passed – 322 votes to 306 – it had been the
Brexit Box Set. Series One with
Theresa May, and Series Two with Boris Johnson. All the old familiar lines, the same ageing cast members, the same arguments and feuds, it would quite frankly have been amazing if anyone had sat through all five and a half hours of it from start to finish on such a bright, sunny day. Related... Here's What Happens Now That
Boris Johnson Has Been Forced To Request A Brexit Delay The Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin’s amendment explicitly prohibits Johnson from crashing out of the EU without a deal on October 31 and it says a lot about how little trust the prime minister commands in the House that such a guarantee was so emphatically demanded by MPs.
The 18 votes by which Johnson lost fell significantly short of the number of MPs he had foolishly kicked out of his own party. As for the 10 votes of the DUP, revenge was a dish best served cold after they had taken exception to the consent mechanism in Johnson’s deal that would have given the Northern
Ireland assembly a say on whether to continue following EU customs rules.
As to what happens in the still-to-be made Brexit Series Three now remains to be seen. The law as laid down under the Benn Act is clear enough that Johnson must now write to the EU to seek an extension to the UK’s current departure date, but he was either reluctant to say such a thing out loud – no doubt mindful of how he had committed himself to being dead in a ditch, than delay things any further – or he is seriously considering defying the law.Johnson is said to be determined to press on with the legislation required to implement his deal regardless and there is even optimistic talk of a meaningful vote on it as early as Tuesday. It is hard not to regard him, however, as a headless chicken.In the immediate aftermath of the vote, there seemed real confusion in the House about what happens next. After being defeated on the amendment, the government and opposition agreed not to hold a vote on the amended motion, which Downing Street sources said they considered in all the circumstances to be “meaningless”. John Bercow, the Speaker, could only say he would give a ruling on Monday as to how things progressed from this point after taking soundings.
Johnson is said to be determined to press on with the legislation required to implement his deal regardless and there is even optimistic talk of a meaningful vote on it as early as Tuesday. It is hard not to regard him, however, as a headless chicken.
The reality is that it is now by no means clear if Johnson will get his bill – which gave May such a sense of “deja-vu” in the debate – through the House.
Jeremy Corbyn, as leader of the opposition, made it clear he could not support it and would be subjecting it now to intense scrutiny, which was generally taken to mean he would try to halt it at every opportunity. He also repeated Labour’s call for a second
referendum to put any Brexit deal to voters with the option of remaining in the EU.
Even if Johnson were to ask for an extension, there has been speculation about whether the EU would grant it, but the fact is it has no choice in the matter in terms of its own laws. EU
diplomats had already penciled in a meeting tomorrow to discuss the practicalities of any extension request. They can decide subject to the agreement of all the member states to offer a shorter or longer extension, which the government would be compelled to accept under law. The humiliation for Johnson could not be much greater than this.
Only one thing can now be said with any certainty and that is a general
election is imminent. Corbyn clearly cannot as leader of the opposition put this off indefinitely. The polls show that Johnson is all but assured of a majority, if a highly effective tactical voting campaign is not organised and quickly.
The only question now is whether or not Brexit will run to a Series Four. My own sense is that it is running out of steam. The authors of this drama have had more than enough time – and money – to come up with a plausible storyline and failed. The public too, demonstrating outside the House in record numbers, are also demonstrably bored to death with it.
Tim Walker is a freelance political journalist and authorRelated... Brexit: Boris Johnson Defiant Despite MPs Voting To Force A Delay Jacob Rees-Mogg And Andrea Leadsom Had To Be Escorted By Police As They Left Westminster Thousands Descend On
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