October 02, 2019

China Won’t Save the World Economy This Time
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- U.S. recession indicators are growing stronger and there's one bigger-than-usual reason why the world should be worried: China isn't coming to the rescue this time.In the past week alone, a gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell to its weakest reading in a decade and payrolls at private companies grew less than forecast. Economists are starting to wonder whether the U.S. has approached so-called stall speed, the slowest pace of growth without careening into a recession. The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, will likely downgrade global growth estimates this month.One of the engines that drove a global economic recovery after the last two downdrafts in America – the relatively shallow one in 2001 and the catastrophe that began in 2007 – was China. As the financial crisis escalated, Beijing opened a floodgate of credit and cut interest rates, which stoked demand for everything from Australian coal to German cars.We’re unlikely to see anything like that this time. Beijing has shown little appetite for another round of massive fiscal stimulus as it atones for the profligacy of the last decade, which left a massive buildup of debt and fueled asset bubbles.While Chinese authorities have been juicing the economy the past year, they have been very careful about how they go about it. Economists keep predicting cuts in the benchmark interest rate; but those haven't been forthcoming, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Shuli Ren wrote recently. The People's Bank of China has preferred trims to lenders' reserve requirements, as officials focus on the best way to channel credit to certain sectors of the business world. Open-slather easing, it isn’t. That doesn't augur particularly well for the prospects of a global recovery. The financial crisis saw the world's most consequential central banks coordinate rate cuts, with China's participation. Beijing’s involvement made China a serious player in the global monetary order.How likely is it that the PBOC will happily sign off on something with the Fed once again? With President Donald Trump sitting in the White House, not very. Then again, Trump has already likened Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Desperation has been known to make odd bedfellows in pursuit of shared short-term goals. The good news is that any steps China does take will have ripple effects given its sheer size. Gross domestic product is now about $14 trillion, compared with barely more than $1 trillion in 2001 and about $4 trillion in 2007. Chinese firms continue to plow investment into neighboring countries and Beijing-funded lenders like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may well step up to provide cash to struggling economies.Let's keep things in perspective, though. China is now recording quarterly economic growth of about 6%, not the 15% notched in 2007 or the roughly 10% in 2001. The executives and politicians who tripped over themselves to praise China’s model of development are noticeably quieter now.Not every recession is like 2007, nor are they always accompanied by a financial collapse. The next slump, whenever it comes, will still be painful, so the U.S. might want to start casting about for an enthusiastic partner. It’s probably a mistake to expect that’ll be China this time around – it’s not only less willing, but less able.To contact the author of this story: Daniel Moss at dmoss@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Rachel Rosenthal at rrosenthal21@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously he was executive editor of Bloomberg News for global economics, and has led teams in Asia, Europe and North America.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Mary Trump 'energized' as uncle 'Donald's campaign spirals into chaos'
Mar 29, 2024
Donald Trump's campaign is in chaos, and his niece says she's energized.Mary Trump, the niece of the former president and a psychologist by trade, has previously been critical of her uncle.On Thursday, she said her uncle's failures are adding up.ALSO READ: A neuroscientist reveals how Trump and Biden's cognitive impairments are different"As the RNC’s fundraising falters and Donald’s campaign spirals into chaos, I am energized!" she said in a Substack post.She then continued:"When Donald dominates the news cycle, it’s hard not to feel overwhelmed. Every bad headline has a negative impact. But then I remember something crucial: There’s usually more to the story than meets the eye. I’m determined to cut through the media noise and share with you all the good that happened this week. These are the headlines we need to remain energized and hopeful that the media largely ignored."Mary Trump goes on to highlight President Joe Biden's recent fundraising hauls."President Biden’s $155 million+ war chest has just received another turbo boost, bringing the total of cash on hand to at least $180 million. (By comparison, between his campaign and the RNC, Donald barely has over $50 million — and continues to drain the accounts to cover his absolutely staggering legal expenses)," she wrote. "This is a development that could significantly increase Biden’s ability to influence the narrative in crucial swing states."This, she says, also tells us a lot about voter excitement for Biden."While critics have expressed doubts about the degree to which the Democratic base is fired up as compared to 2020, today’s $25 million fundraiser, raised with donations ranging from $250 to $500,000, should put any doubts to rest — yes, we are absolutely behind President Biden and Vice President Harris and we’re in this fight until the end," she wrote.Read the full post here.
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