It’s the question on everybody’s lips right now – is there going to be a general
election in the next few weeks? As division in the Commons over
Brexit reaches a fever pitch, will voters be sent to the polls to find a solution?
Good question. Here’s everything you need to know about the situation so far and, crucially, what could happen in the coming days.What Is A Snap General Election? Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act (the legislation that dictates the rules around general elections), general
elections are supposed to be held every five years. If a public vote is called before then, it's considered a 'snap' election. What Are The Chances Of A Snap General Election? As it stands, the chances of a snap general election are *pretty high*
On Tuesday, opposition MPs – and a group of Tory rebels – are expected to introduce last-ditch legislation to try and block a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
It comes after
Boris Johnson successfully petitioned the
Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks over September and October in the run up to the Brexit deadline – a move he says will allow him to introduce an “exciting” new domestic agenda in a Queen’s speech.
However, critics have interpreted it as an attempt by the PM to kill off any chance for politicians to block a no-deal Brexit in parliament. Now, MPs are racing against the clock to put a spanner in Johnson’s plans to leave the EU “do or die” on
Halloween before parliament is shut down next week.
But, the PM has his own counter-attack up his sleeve. Cabinet ministers have been told that Johnson will attempt to force a snap general election on October 14 if MPs vote to block a no-deal Brexit, with the PM insisting there are “no circumstances” in which he would ask the EU to delay Brexit.
It means a general election could be on the cards very soon. The Alternative Route But the
UK could be heading to the polls even if the rebels’ no-deal legislation fails, as opposition MPs could still call a vote of no-confidence in the government.
In a scenario in which Johnson and his team lose, they would have 14 days to convince MPs to back the government in a second confidence vote. (An alternative government formed during this time could also do the same thing.) If the PM failed to do so, a general election would be called.
(Maybe it’s time to check if you’re registered to vote…) How Would Boris Johnson Call A Snap Election? Under the current rules, general elections are supposed to be held every five years, meaning the next vote wouldn’t be scheduled until 5 May 2022.
So, in order to call a snap vote, the government would need to table a motion for an early election in parliament . At least two thirds of the Commons – 434 MPs – would then have to give the motion their backing in order to trigger an election. This is the most obvious route – but it’s not the only option available to the PM.
The prime minister could also table a short bill which basically overrides the current laws around elections, allowing him to call an election on a specific date. For this to succeed, he would only need 51% of MPs at the vote to back it. However, it would also need to pass through the House of Lords and would be open to amendment.
Thirdly, if Johnson was *absolutely* determined to hold an election, the government could even call a vote of no confidence in itself. Like a normal no-confidence vote, opposition parties would have 14 days to try and put together an alternative government before a public vote was called. Does
Labour Want An Election? In a word – yes. In a speech on Monday, Labour leader
Jeremy Corbyn said the UK “needs” a general election – though he admitted that his first priority is to block a no-deal Brexit.
“When a government finds itself without a majority the solution is not to undermine democracy,” he told supporters at an event in Salford.
“The solution is to let the people decide and call a general election.
“It is the people not an unelected prime minister who should determine our country’s future.”
Shadow attorney general Shami Chakrabarti confirmed the position on
BBC Breakfast on Tuesday, saying Labour wanted an election ‘at the appropriate moment’ but Corbyn was focused on stopping no-deal first.
The stance comes despite former Labour PM Tony Blair saying a general election could be an “elephant trap” for the party, arguing that some voters “may fear a Corbyn premiership more” than a no-deal Brexit.What Do The Polls Say? According to YouGov polling over the weekend, a general election would see the Conservative Party take 34% of the vote, leaving them 12 points clear of Labour, would would receive 22% of votes.
However, that is not necessarily good news for the Tories – it would be one of the worst election results for the party since WW2.
Meanwhile, according to the poll, the Lib Dems would come in third with 17% of the vote, four points ahead of the Brexit Party.
But if we’ve learned anything from the past few years, it’s that polls can be very, very wrong. It looks like there’s an election coming, and no one can really be sure of where on earth that would be leave
British politics.Related... Philip Hammond Promises Boris Johnson 'Fight Of A Lifetime' If PM Tries To Force Him Out Of Tory Party Corbyn 'Won't Fall For Johnson's Trick' Of No-Deal Snap Election, Ally Reveals Will There Be A Snap Election?