Boris Johnson is not daunted by the task ahead of him. He made that clear in his Tory leadership victory speech on Tuesday.
But when he walks into 10 Downing Street today, he will face possibly a bigger set of challenges than any incoming leader since his hero Winston Churchill took power during the Second World War.
He has built up a broad coalition that includes Remainer moderate Matt Hancock on one side, and the Brexiteers’ Brexiteer Steve Baker on the other, leaving few MPs knowing which way he will turn.
Searching for answers, HuffPost
UK spoke to MPs from across the Tory party to find out how a Jonhson premiership could play out. BrexitJohnson has drawn so many red lines on
Brexit that many see it coming down to a choice between no deal and a general
election in autumn.
But two former ministers on different sides of the Johnson divide both believe he could be the “SAS stun grenade” to “blind” his hard Brexit backers in the European Research Group (ERG) into supporting a deal that looks very much like Theresa May’s.
One of them, a member of the so-called ‘Gaukeward squad’ of MPs determined to stop no deal, believes Johnson will realise quickly in
Brussels negotiations that May’s withdrawal agreement is not “dead” after all.
But he thinks the incoming PM may be able to come back with a “tweak” that allows him to rebadge it as “Boris’s deal”.
The question then becomes whether hardline Brexiteers are “stupid” enough to continue opposing it when “at least half a dozen” Tories are prepared to rebel to block no deal again, the MP said.
“He’s got to shaft somebody and most of us are hoping he shafts Baker, because he’s perhaps the only person who can.”George Freeman, the former Number 10 policy chief who is vying for a role in Johnson’s government, suggests he might stand a chance of winning over the ERG by spending his first hundred days making a “flurry of good positive announcements”.
“With some vision, ambition and optimism, clarity on where we want to get to, Boris might be able to buy some room to secure a deal,” he said
Another MP, who supports Johnson, sees him as the only person who can break the impasse gripping Westminster.
“The only way we burst through this is to throw the political equivalent of an SAS stun grenade in and see whether Boris can blind everyone, possibly use his authority to quieten down the ERG and get something through,” another ex-minister said.No deal But the Johnson-supporting minister admits the “wiggle room is very small” and that Johnson’s pledge to leave the EU on October 31 “do or die” is likely to make no deal the working assumption - even if the new PM would rather avoid it.
“He will portray it as a Dunkirk moment, forgetting that Dunkirk was one of our biggest military failures, hoping and praying that parliament is going to stop him, which I think it will,” they said.
A senior MP from the One Nation Conservatives group believes Johnson will recoil in horror once the civil service educate him on the reality of no deal.
“I don’t think he wants a no-deal Brexit. I think he knows, and it will be abundantly clear to him by about Friday morning, what a no-deal Brexit means for the country.”
Unsurprisingly, an ERG MP sees things differently, believing Johnson can bypass parliament’s opposition to no deal by winning public support for his “do or die” pledge.
“You always came away with a smile on your face having been in a meeting with Boris Johnson,” they said.
“I’m just waiting for Boris to do the same with the nation and the parliamentary party will follow in kind of a Reagan-esque way.
“Am I worried that Boris will not deliver for us? No. Do I understand every nuance and tactic as to how we’re going to get over some of the ‘Gaukeward squad’? No, I don’t.”What about his gaffes?One backbench MP, who has been loyal to successive prime ministers in May and David Cameron, said they were “really, really worried” about how Johnson’s penchant for gaffes will translate in Downing Street.
“Everyone drops a bollock once in a while but he drops five every 30 minutes,” they said.
“But he has got a track record of putting good people around him and he must do that now.”
Two other MPs volunteer independently that life under Johnson will be “a rollercoaster”.
But the ERG supporter puts faith in Johnson’s ability to build a competent team.
“There’s a saying more in junior ministerial ranks rather than the senior ones - the civil service won’t let you completely fuck it up.”
Others believe he might have changed after a long leadership contest which put his past claims under a glaring spotlight.Richard Ratcliffe says
Boris Johnson needs to take responsibility for his comments regarding his wife Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.The former Foreign Secretary told @RidgeOnSunday that he rejected any responsibility for plight of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe https://t.co/XQwjzP3Kknpic.twitter.com/GwaQKbJHSP— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 30, 2019“He might turn out suddenly to have learnt a huge amount from his time as foreign secretary and vowed never to do it again,” the One Nation Tory says.
“Or he might not have done and he might just carrying on being Boris and we just don’t know.”Cabinet reshuffleAs one Westminster hack puts it, there is always a “botched reshuffle” story, and Johnson will hope he sends the vast majority of MPs away happy for the summer rather than simmering with resentment in the heat.
There will have to be winners and losers though with the party split between wanting a Brexiteer cabinet or a government of all the party’s talents.
The ‘Gaukeward squad’ member fully expects ERG types to get promoted.
“There’s going to be one or two appointments that will just have me under the bed with a pillow stuffed in my mouth laughing,” they said.
“He’s got hours and hours of misery ahead of him, and there you go that’s what happens when your ambition is so enormous you’re prepared to do deals with people in the ERG.”
Even if Johnson wants to appoint a broad-based government he will have to be careful who he promotes, suggests the ex-minister hoping for a job.
“As I watch the reshuffle, if I get a phone call I will be looking at the first 20 appointments thinking is that a government I can serve in?
“If (hard Brexiteer) Mark Francois is chief secretary to the Treasury, forget it.”
The ERG-backing MP thinks a younger, “hungry” generation of MPs are more likely to get promoted than those waiting “their turn” or who feel “they are due it because they supported him”.
“I think he’ll be looking more to the future than the big beasts,” they said.Danger aheadUltimately as May was eventually brought down by the ERG, Johnson the Brexiteer’s fate appears to lie in the hands of the moderates.
The One Nation Tory warned him that many who backed him during the leadership campaign did so “with crossed fingers behind their back”.
“If he suddenly appoints a Brexiteer cabinet and says we’re not even talking to the EU, we’re going to go for a no-deal Brexit on October 31, then you can expect the One Nation group to be pretty loud and vocal,” the MP said.
Alistair Burt, who served as a junior foreign minister under Johnson, warned the incoming PM he must now, for perhaps the first time, be serious. “He will have to prove to be more diligent than he has appeared to be and although he is right to want to be optimistic and make sure the country feels good about itself, he can do that without him needing personally to have a joke on every occasion, and in every speech.
“He is going to be dealing with some really serious stuff and I personally would welcome a series of very serious speeches from Boris Johnson.
“Pick your team well, make sure it’s broad, but above all do not be seduced on the great question of no deal.
“There is a deal available, the country wants it, you can deliver it.”Related...
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