July 03, 2019

No, Iran is Not Sprinting Toward a Nuclear Bomb
Iran’s breach of the nuclear accord was more message than threat. Iran is not sprinting for a bomb, nor does it want a war. But National Security Advisor John Bolton does. Iran’s recent actions have played right into Bolton’s hand, increasing the risk of war.Iran recently breached a minor limit of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal, stockpiling low enriched uranium (LEU) beyond the permitted three-hundred-kilogram limit. This is a small, reversible step, and not a significant danger to the United States. Despite Bolton’s statements to the contrary, it does not indict that Iran is sprinting to a bomb—they are still a long way away. Instead, Iran’s main interest is to create leverage for sanctions relief.Iran has done this before. Before the nuclear deal, Iran had over ten thousand kilograms of low-enriched uranium gas. They agreed to ship 98 percent of it out of the country, as part of the deal, and were left with a token amount of three hundred kilograms.Iran’s decision to surpass this limit was a direct response to U.S. provocations. President Donald Trump violated the nuclear deal a year ago, reimposing all nuclear sanctions on Iran. Since then, Bolton and Trump’s other advisors have been steadily ramping up the pressure, hoping to provoke Iran and create a pretext for U.S. military strikes.Most recently, the United States imposed sanctions on any country that accepts shipments of Iran’s excess uranium. Iran had been exporting any LEU in excess of the three-hundred-kilograms limit, as they’re permitted to do under the deal. Now, since the United States removed the export option, they are continuing to slowly produce LEU, but stockpiling it rather than shipping it out.



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