If things have finally been coming together for some of the biggest nations ahead of the 2018 World Cup, that is not quite the case for many of the biggest stars.
There is in fact currently the danger that all of Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Alexis Sanchez, Luka Modric, Gigi Buffon and James Rodriguez will all miss out, with Gareth Bale already certain to. That means Russia 2018 could well be without the two best players in the world and those whose duopoly has dominated an era like no other, arguably two of the next best 10 players, the world’s former most expensive player and the last World Cup’s golden boy and top scorer. In all, 14 of last year’s 30 Ballon D’Or long-list nominees could be absent, and 10 of this years.
Many marketing companies and major sporting sponsors will be sweating. Far more importantly, and far more intensely, so too will the fans and the players themselves, as well as the entire teams around them.
At the least, so much will come to a head tonight, in what could well be the most chaotically entertaining night of World Cup qualification since 17 November 1993.
That was the evening when David Ginola infamously cost France a place at the expense of Hristo Stoichkov’s Bulgaria, when European champions Denmark were undone by 10-man Spain and a miracle performance from Santiago Canizares, when circumstances somehow allowed Ireland to come through a crucial qualifier in Belfast at the height of the troubles in Northern Ireland, when Roy Hodgson’s Switzerland qualified at the expense of Portugal’s golden generation, when Davide Gualtieri scored for San Marino after eight seconds against Graham Taylor’s ill-fated England, when Paul Bodin missed a penalty for Wales that saved a magic Romania…
This could be a much more momentous night, and it will be difficult not to think it is the most momentous qualifying night ever if Messi and Argentina miss out.
It is not very often that the world’s best player has not got to perform on the world’s greatest stage, and it is rarely like this. You really have to go back to Johan Cruyff in 1978, and that was because he refused to play.
For Messi, by contrast, it is as if the ball has just refused to go in for his team. The painfully frustrating 0-0 draw against Peru summed so many of their problems up, and reflected why no player other than Messi has scored for Argentina in a year and why they have hit 73 shots in a row without any reward. It is as if an anxiety and psychological block has taken hold of the side, the depressing from three successive major tournament final defeats giving away to something deeper.
They simply must break it away to Ecuador tonight, they must win to get back into the south American top five from sixth in the mini-league table. With Brazil having already qualified and Uruguay assured of at least the fifth-placed play-off spot against New Zealand it is thereafter so tight, and takes in so many other stars. Sanchez’s Chile are third on 26 points and play away to Brazil, whose competitive manager Tite wants to end this with a bang.
James’ Colombia are also on 26 but should really be qualified having been ahead at home to Paraguay in their last match only to end up losing 2-1. The Colombians now face an effective play-off against Peru, who currently lie in the play-off place on 25 points, having frustrated Argentina in the last match. That face-off and the fact it must produce a result could yet mean that a draw away to Ecuador is enough for Argentina since it would take them to 26 points… except that resurgent Paraguay are expected to beat bottom-placed Venezuela and go to 27 points.
Argentina then need to produce. They need to actually help Messi. That will be the greater frustration of all of this. He was actually supreme in the match against Peru, setting up four sitters and one other fine chance - but his teammates just couldn’t take them. They arguably don’t deserve a place at the World Cup, but Messi does.
While Argentina are suffering from their own series of idiosyncratic problems that could deny Messi - not to mention Paulo Dybala and Gonzalo Higuain - that is not quite the case with Sanchez, Arturo Vidal or James. They are merely enduring the idiosyncrasies of the most difficult qualifying region of all. There are bound to be big dropped points.
It is also the one issue that takes some of the edge off the European games, since the continent’s stars probably won’t be dropping out altogether, but only into the play-offs. That is where Modric’s Croatia and Buffon’s Italy already find themselves. Ronaldo’s Portugal - who understandably started the campaign in slightly lethargic fashion after winning Euro 2016 - now might find new life at the death, as victory at home to leaders Switzerland would award them automatic qualification.
Anything less would bring two more nights of drama, to go with those Buffon and Modric will have to go through. Whether Messi and Argentina will even get to that, though, depends on tonight.