Back Print Commentary By Jianli Yang - - Monday, August 21, 2023 OPINION: In the realm of international security, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the “Quad,” stands as a robust framework uniting Australia, India,
Japan and the United States. Among these four nations, India, while often appearing out of step in certain
MILITARY matters, is poised to play an indispensable role in one of the most significant security challenges the Quad may confront — a potential Chinese incursion into Taiwan. Beyond the debates and discussions regarding the formation of joint or theater commands, India’s armed forces have embarked on a strategic assessment aimed at delineating the country’s potential options and responses should
China invade or attack Taiwan. The catalyst for this initiative was Chief of Defense Staff Anil Chauhan’s directive, issued at a high-level military conclave in July in Lucknow. The objective is to be prepared with a range of options should a conflict over Taiwan erupt. This decision gains added importance against the backdrop of consistent reports, possibly supported by intelligence inputs from the U.S. and Japanese agencies, regarding China’s intentions concerning its Taiwan policy. This step becomes imperative as
India recalibrates its relationship with the
United States and holds a pivotal role in the Quad. Prominent military observers, including Philip Davidson, former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, have recently speculated that the Chinese army may make its move by 2027 — the same year that it aims to achieve its centennial objective of becoming a world-class military force. While Mr. Davidson’s warning aligns with U.S. assessments, India’s military strategists are contemplating the creation of contingency plans to address potential conflicts beyond its immediate vicinity. The comprehensive study underway will craft well-calibrated plans that factor in a range of potential scenarios arising from a Taiwan conflict. The interdisciplinary study team, representing India’s army, navy and air force, has been tasked with devising strategies that may be activated if the United States calls upon India for assistance. India’s stance in a Taiwan Strait conflict will hinge upon various factors such as the conflict’s duration, the involvement of other nations — led by the U.S. — and Taiwan’s capacity to withstand the assault. For instance, the U.S. military may seek to use India’s airfields and naval bases for refueling, replenishment and repairs in the initial phases of the conflict. This logistical support hinges on foundational agreements such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a facilitative accord established in 2016 to define the terms and procedures for the mutual provision of military supplies and services between India and the United States. These encompass an array of provisions, including food, water, transportation and medical services. The scenarios extend beyond mere logistical support, however. In the event that a Taiwan conflict transitions into a military stalemate, India might find itself drawn into a more active role beyond provisioning support to the U.S. military. In such circumstances, the study aims to explore the viability and nature of a potential Indian military front along China’s southwestern Himalayan border. This strategic move could strain China’s military resources, inhibiting its capacity to concentrate forces on the Taiwan front. Notably, the ongoing tension between Chinese and Indian forces along the Himalayan heights for several years has resulted in a substantial military buildup on both sides. Amid China’s escalating efforts to exert coercive pressure on Taiwan, the joint U.S.-India military exercises held in the Himalayas at altitudes surpassing 10,000 feet last November have assumed heightened importance. Whether to present China with a diplomatic “two-front” challenge rests on political and diplomatic considerations, yet India’s military is committed to being primed with options well in advance of any conflict involving Taiwan. Should a military impasse materialize, the degree of economic reliance on China among the nations pledging support for Taiwan’s defense will become a crucial factor. Countries like the U.S., Japan and Australia have deep trading ties with China. To contribute effectively to Taiwan’s defense, these nations must diversify their markets and strengthen supply chains independent of China’s influence. This is where India’s pivotal role comes into play. India boasts the world’s third-largest defense budget and is on track to achieve the third-largest gross domestic product. By extending support to Taiwan and bolstering its international stature, India could significantly enhance the deterrence efforts the U.S. has undertaken to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. In this context, India’s pivotal role in safeguarding Taiwan stands poised as a linchpin in the Quad’s defense strategy. • Jianli Yang is founder and president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China and the author of “It’s Time for a Values-Based ‘Economic
NATO.’” Copyright © 2023 The
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