March 06, 2020

Superdelegates might doom Bernie Sanders — again
By this time in the last presidential race, Hillary Clinton had won 672 delegates in the Democratic primaries and caucuses, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) had won 477. A 40 percent lead with most state contests still to go might not seem insurmountable — except for the Democratic Party's "superdelegate" system, in which hundreds of party leaders and elected officials choose which candidate to back at the national convention regardless of their states' votes. And in early March of 2016, Clinton had collected the endorsements of 458 superdelegates to a mere 22 on Sanders' side. At the end of the race, the gap had only grown, with Clinton's superdelegate count finishing at 609 and Sanders' at 47. The Vermont senator would have had to take huge majorities in the primaries to overcome that advantage. He couldn't do it.Sanders fans were pissed, and understandably so. They and their champion sought rules changes for the next cycle, and the biggest one they got is that the 771 superdelegates can no longer participate in the first vote at the Democratic National Convention. Yet if no single candidate in that initial round wins a majority plus one of the ordinary, voter-pledged delegates (1,991 of 3,979), superdelegates get to jump in for subsequent votes.This doesn't necessarily mean Sanders is finished, but it does mean he must win that first ballot at the convention if he's going to win at all. Heading to Milwaukee with a plurality of pledged delegates might have been enough, in a larger field, to fight to victory at a contested convention. Not anymore. Now Sanders needs a 1,991-vote majority.The math here isn't quite as grim as it was for Sanders in 2016, but it's pretty bad. (FiveThirtyEight put his odds of winning the nomination to one in 30 after Super Tuesday.) Superdelegates have been far slower to endorse this cycle — as of this writing, 530 of 771 have yet to announce their preference. With only Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, and extreme longshot Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) left in the race, however, those endorsements will likely begin dropping soon. Where will they fall?Well, Gabbard has a single superdelegate behind her: herself. Sanders so far has 25 endorsements, remarkably similar to his count this time four years ago and barely more than the 24 who backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or the 23 who went for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg before they each left the race. Biden is leading the pack with 104 superdelegate endorsements, including the only active 10 from "distinguished party leaders" — a category of former Democratic presidents, vice presidents, House and Senate leaders, and DNC chairs, none of whom have supported Sanders.Biden's advantage is far smaller than Clinton's was in March of 2016, but it will only get bigger from here. His endorsements from recently fallen rivals including Bloomberg will probably send their superdelegates his way, a gain of about 40, and possible veep picks like Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) or Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) would each bring some superdelegate endorsements of their own.Still, Biden is unlikely to need that sort of connection to pick up most of those remaining 530 votes. Sanders has slammed the former vice president as someone "running a campaign that is heavily supported by the corporate establishment," but it's not just corporate leaders who would prefer Biden and the status quo he represents. It's looking a lot like the Democratic Party establishment would, too.Superdelegates who are also members of Congress or other officials facing a difficult re-election campaign this fall may see their opportunity to put a thumb on the scale for Biden through the lens of self-interest. The GOP will brand every Democrat running as a socialist if Sanders is the party's leader, a very risky label in purple districts. A New York Times report from late last month informed by interviews with 93 superdelegates found these party leaders are thus overwhelmingly "willing to risk intraparty damage to stop [Sanders'] nomination ... if he arrived with the most delegates but fell short of a majority."That's why Sanders must win the first vote at the convention if he's going to win at all. He's argued superdelegates should back him in the second vote if he has a plurality to avoid the appearance of the party elite stealing the decision from the people. The superdelegate endorsements so far and the Times interviews both indicate that argument is unlikely to prevail.Instead, superdelegate proportions look to be headed to a similar final spot as in 2016, choosing Sanders' opponent by a margin of five or six to one. The rule change keeps them out of the first vote. But if there's a second vote, it will almost certainly mean an influx of hundreds more delegates who will vote for Joe Biden.More stories from theweek.com China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim Trump says doctors keep asking how he knows so much about the coronavirus Expert says officials need to get passengers off coronavirus-infected cruise ship quickly
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Mary Trump 'energized' as uncle 'Donald's campaign spirals into chaos'
Mar 29, 2024
Donald Trump's campaign is in chaos, and his niece says she's energized.Mary Trump, the niece of the former president and a psychologist by trade, has previously been critical of her uncle.On Thursday, she said her uncle's failures are adding up.ALSO READ: A neuroscientist reveals how Trump and Biden's cognitive impairments are different"As the RNC’s fundraising falters and Donald’s campaign spirals into chaos, I am energized!" she said in a Substack post.She then continued:"When Donald dominates the news cycle, it’s hard not to feel overwhelmed. Every bad headline has a negative impact. But then I remember something crucial: There’s usually more to the story than meets the eye. I’m determined to cut through the media noise and share with you all the good that happened this week. These are the headlines we need to remain energized and hopeful that the media largely ignored."Mary Trump goes on to highlight President Joe Biden's recent fundraising hauls."President Biden’s $155 million+ war chest has just received another turbo boost, bringing the total of cash on hand to at least $180 million. (By comparison, between his campaign and the RNC, Donald barely has over $50 million — and continues to drain the accounts to cover his absolutely staggering legal expenses)," she wrote. "This is a development that could significantly increase Biden’s ability to influence the narrative in crucial swing states."This, she says, also tells us a lot about voter excitement for Biden."While critics have expressed doubts about the degree to which the Democratic base is fired up as compared to 2020, today’s $25 million fundraiser, raised with donations ranging from $250 to $500,000, should put any doubts to rest — yes, we are absolutely behind President Biden and Vice President Harris and we’re in this fight until the end," she wrote.Read the full post here.
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