Just last week, Spaniards had to put their clocks back for winter time. 3am had now changed to 2am. An hour’s sleep gained. But that was the only advance the country experienced in 2019.
If there were a clock that measured a nation’s progress, Spain’s would have stopped on April 28, 2019, the date of its most recent general election. At best, the clock’s hands will not start moving again until December.
This coming Sunday, the Spanish will once again be electing a new prime minister. And that’s a European record; four
elections in four years, which have only served to create a climate of utter boredom, pessimism and anger in a society that is constantly being consulted, but whose opinions no one listens to.
If a woman had become pregnant on the day of the last general
election on April 28, 2019, the baby would not have been born yet. It is an analogy that reflects a general sentiment: there has to be an outcome, but what that outcome might be at this juncture is not at all clear.
Because, once again, Spaniards will be voting, but of all the main candidates standing in the elections, not even one has changed. And neither will the winner of the election have changed. Nobody doubts that it will be socialist Pedro Sanchez.
The big question in November is exactly the same question that was asked by voters in April: which parties will the socialist party (PSOE) form an alliance with so that they can form a government?
Because everything remains unchanged, Sanchez will win, but he will not get a sufficient majority to govern alone. As in April, he will need the support of other political parties, and once again, Unidas Podemos, the most left-wing party, stands out as the most logical partner. However, this coalition, called for by both socialist and Unidas Podemos voters, was frustrated during the summer. No agreement was reached and the lack of general understanding led to a call for new elections.
With whom will Pedro Sanchez be able govern now? This is the question that pervades the streets of
Spain and one to which there is only one person who knows the answer: Pedro Sanchez. During this election campaign, Sanchez has insisted on his wish to form a progressive government, which would point to an alliance with Unidas Podemos.
However, his animosity towards Pablo Iglesias, the leader of this left-wing party, is so apparent that it has become a real obstacle to their taking this new opportunity to unite. Forming a coalition with his eternal rival, the conservative Partido Popular, is an option that is increasingly gaining support.
In comparison with the situation in April, the only major difference on this occasion is the rise of the extreme right-wing Vox, a party that is practically identical to the French National Front of Marina Le Pen or the Lega Nord of Matteo Salvini in Italy.
This party − which advocates building a wall that separates the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla from Morocco, denies climate change and repudiates feminism − has now found the spring-board it needs to win votes. Most opinion polls suggest that Vox will become the third political force in Spain.
Led by Santiago Abascal, it has become the rallying point for all those that defend a hard-line approach to the resolution of the
Catalan independence conflict. Vox has no understanding of shades of grey: things are either black or white. And when it comes to the Catalan question, it`s all black.
This is why it has proposed that all leaders of parties that defend the right of Catalans to decide on whether or not to remain in Spain should be arrested, and that regional autonomous powers in sensitive areas, such as self-government, education or healthcare should be suppressed. In other words, that Spain should take over full control of Catalonia. This is the most extreme stance across the entire political spectrum. The other two conservative parties – the Partido Popular, on track to come second, and Ciudadanos, the party that most resembles the political thinking of
Emmanuel Macron, the French president – have opted for progressively [greater] control of Catalonia.
In turn, Pedro Sanchez has hardened his position on this conflict by denying Catalans the opportunity to vote in a
referendum on their future within Spain, something which the Spanish Constitution forbids. On the other hand, Unidas Podemos takes a more open stance and advocates for the possibility of holding a referendum on potential independence.
One of the major differences between Spain and the rest of Europe is that the Conservative party (PP) and the Liberals (Cs) are willing to make pacts with the extreme right, in contrast to equivalent leaders with similar political ideologies in other countries, such as
Angela Merkel or Macron.With a galloping economic crisis, real political uncertainty and a country paralysed by the lack of agreement among the parties, voters will go to the polls again Sunday with a great deal of reluctance. In fact, as a result of the votes of the extreme right-wing Vox, these two parties govern in important regions, such as Madrid – Spain’s economic powerhouse – and Andalusia, its most populous region. Furthermore, if they get the chance, all three will enter into an alliance to form a government after November 10.
Catalonia and Vox are the two axles upon which the electoral campaign will turn, but which, in themselves, will not clear a path towards the formation of a government.
Many are the voices predicting that after the fourth general election in four years, there will be a fifth, plunging the country in an endless loop that will result in a state of political instability similar to that of Italy.
Sanchez, who knows that he will win, is confident that, in the end, he will find a partner with whom he will be able to complete the four year legislature.
Given the widespread support from left-wing voters, the recent decision to exhume the former dictator Francisco Franco is thought to favor his bid for election victory. However, it has also provided fuel for the ultra-right Vox, who were totally opposed to the removal of the dictator’s remains.
With a galloping economic crisis, real political uncertainty and a country paralysed by the lack of agreement among the parties, voters will go to the polls again Sunday with a great deal of reluctance. “Why, just so that everything stays just the same?” is the question that Spanish society as a whole is asking itself.
A factor that could influence what happens on November 10 is that in comparison with the elections of April, 28, participation in postal voting has fallen by 30%. All of this is a clear symptom of the general fatigue with politics and politicians and a sentiment that may also work in favor of the extreme right-wing party Vox.
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