Holidaymakers are set to face “inevitable” price rises for air travel as
Boeing grapples with a barrage of safety incidents, controversy and a top-level management reshuffle. In the latest in a string of incidents for the beleaguered aircraft manufacturer, an engine cover fell off a Boeing 737 during take-off from Denver,
Colorado on Sunday, hitting the aircraft’s wing flap. None of the 135 passengers and six crew members onboard were injured , and the plane made an early landing before the passengers were transferred to a different aircraft. But Boeing, which has dominated the marketplace for commercial aircraft for the best part of a century, is now under intense scrutiny from US regulators, meaning production of the 737 Max – one of the firm’s flagship jets – has recently been capped. Regulators have limited the production of 737s to 38 a month, and Boeing leadership has claimed to be looking at producing even fewer than that. The company has a key role in the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry – Airbus is its only real competitor – and experts told i they expect this will have knock-on effects in the short and long term for customers. How will this affect flight prices? The engine cover incident is part of a “perfect storm” for consumer price rises, according to Bernard Lavelle, a principal consultant at BL Aviation Consulting. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that airfares from and within Europe rose about 16 per cent between summer 2019 and summer 2023. Now, Mr Lavelle thinks that airfares are set for another rise, which he calls simply a “matter of supply and demand”. Read Next Boeing whistleblower's family blame troubled company for his death “If the supply of aircraft goes down, and demand from holidaymakers remains high, as it seems to be doing, prices inevitably go up,” he said. Many of the most popular low-cost airlines for
UK travellers, including Ryanair, rely exclusively on Boeing jets. As part of its wider strategy of cost-cutting, the
Irish airline chooses to only train pilots and support engineers on Boeing planes – meaning they can’t lease rental charter jets from different providers to fill the gap. Mr Lavelle points out that Ryanair retired many of its planes in 2020 when the pandemic kept demand temporarily low. As a result of the recent issues, which have slowed Boeing’s production, the aircraft supply in Europe has yet to return to 2019 levels, despite passenger demand bouncing back. The airlines appear to agree about the demise of low prices. In August 2022, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary told the media that “the era of the €10 ticket is over”. But not all airlines popular in the UK rely on Boeing.
British airline EasyJet exclusively uses Airbus, the only other large commercial aircraft manufacturer. However, though it has had less attention, the Dutch plane manufacturer is having supply issues of its own. Airbus’s A320n family of aircraft has been intensely affected by issues with a commonly used type of engine called the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G, which has limited its ability to supply planes on time, according to Mr Lavelle. Airbus confirmed last year that planes would be grounded while inspections and repairs took place. The aviation consultant says that Airbus’s supply issues are likely to affect the prices of Hungarian airline Wizz Air’s flights, but less so EasyJet flights – because EasyJet uses few Airbus A320s. What does this mean for the future of aviation? Damian Devlin, an aviation lecturer at the University of East
London, said that the incident was likely to be “a good thing” for Airbus. But he said that the string of safety issues might not affect Boeing in the long term. Dr Devlin pointed out that the buying cycle for aircraft is much longer than in almost any other industry on the planet. He said that airlines will often agree to buy planes from Boeing up to a decade in advance, meaning if Boeing managed to assure partners of its safety and quality in the next few years, its place in the industry could be assured. The lecturer also believes the vast expense of entering the industry is likely to somewhat protect Boeing from future competitors entering the market. “Realistically the cost of entry is astronomical, so any recent issues are unlikely to open the door for other manufacturers.” He does, however, believe that one long-term impact will be that customers are thinking about the aircraft they are flying on, in a way they haven’t in the past, with some online booking services allowing users to filter out 737 Max planes . “This is something they will now have to manage with their passengers,” he told i . “Airlines will now need to provide reassurance for passengers that their fleets are safe.” Rob Burgess, editor and founder of the UK-based frequent flyer website headforpoints.com, believes that “a Boeing aircraft could crash every month and it would not make much difference in the current economic environment”. Mr Burgess highlighted that both Airbus and Boeing have order books “stretching over five years for most models”. As a result, short of paying another airline to give up its delivery slots, it is effectively impossible for carriers to swap existing Boeing orders to Airbus without adding years of delay. “There are also no signs, at all, that passengers are unwilling to fly on Boeing aircraft, as the aftermath of the Max crashes [ in 2018 and 2019 ] showed,” he told i .