This is already shaping up to be a fascinating
NBA offseason, especially with a new-look draft format, an All-Star point guard potentially hitting the trade market and a living legend (and his son) facing some big summer decisions. We're also monitoring a potential extension for another All-Star guard, one who could stand to make far more money if he simply stays patient. Using the latest rumors and news, we can start to build some (hopefully) accurate predictions about how the 2024 offseason will shake out. We'll see a major change in the 2024 NBA draft, as the first and second rounds will now take place over two days for the first time in history. Spreading the draft out from June 26 to 27 should have a significant effect on trade activity as well. "The increased pressure we face to trade picks from the end of the lottery through pick 60 requires more time to process in the moment," one Western Conference executive told ESPN's Jeremy Woo . "Two days allows for the possibility of a longer transaction cycle around the draft and celebrates a signature moment in the league's calendar." Letting front offices catch their breath after the first round and giving them nearly 24 hours to make calls is going to cause draft-day trades to explode. Teams can now give their roster a better evaluation, see what players have fallen into Round 2 that they wish to go after and allow general managers to further contemplate moves without having the pressure of a ticking clock. The 2023 NBA draft featured nine total trades that were consummated during the event. Spreading the event over two nights will lead to twice as many deals getting done. Jalen Brunson has gone through one of the most impressive ascensions over the past three years, starting the 2021-22 season as a backup with the Dallas Mavericks before making the 2024 All-Star team and looking like an All-NBA lock now with the
New York Knicks. His four-year, $104 million contract now looks like a bargain, one the Knicks should want him to extend off as soon as possible. "I've heard whispers that Jalen Brunson would be open to discussions to do [an extension] this summer," Steve Popper of Newsday said during an appearance on The Putback with Ian Begley. While Knicks fans would be thrilled with this, don't expect it to actually happen. Brunson is under contract for next season at $24.9 million and holds a player option for the same amount in 2025-26. Extending this summer would only net Brunson a max of $156.5 million over four years, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks , as the total length a player can be under contract for is five seasons. This puts Brunson at $181.4 million over the next five years ($36.3 million per season) if he extends this summer. Waiting until 2025 when he can become an unrestricted free agent would be far more lucrative for Brunson, who made just $6.1 million over his first four seasons after being selected in the second round by the Mavs. Brunson will be able to sign for 30 percent of the 2025-26 salary cap that could reach as high as $155.1 million, according to Spotrac.com . This would mean a first-year salary of $46.5 million and a total contract of over $270 million overall. With Brunson establishing himself as a max player, he'd be wise to wait until 2025 to sign a new deal. In a 2024 NBA draft that's severely lacking star power, one of the more interesting prospects is Bronny James after he declared following a lackluster freshman season at USC. James also entered the transfer portal, keeping open to the option of staying in college. According to ESPN's Jonathan Givony , most NBA teams expect James to return to the NCAA for a second season. While this is probably the best thing for James' career long-term, he carries enough potential as a 19-year-old to be drafted immediately. If James transfers to a smaller program and still struggles, it could ruin his NBA chances altogether. Projections are all over the board (and may depend on what
LeBron James does with his player option), with Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman writing that Bronny's range is anywhere from a late first-round pick all the way to undrafted. As Wasserman writes: "His scoring inefficiency has raised questions about his ability to create, finish in the half court and hit jumpers consistently. He hasn't demonstrated any single, convincing skill for scoring at the next level. And teams might not believe James' defense and passing IQ are enough to justify NBA minutes." Is a father-son package deal even worth justifying a first-round pick on James, however? The elder will turn 40 in December, and while he is still playing at an All-NBA level, he has publicly stated that his time in the league is nearing an end. We may not even see James become a free agent at all this summer (more on this later). Drafting Bronny with no assurance that his dad will sign on as well seems like a huge waste of a first-round pick. Bronny finished his lone season as USC with 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 19.4 minutes, primarily coming off the bench. While Wasserman writes that his projected NBA role is that of a 3-and-D
shooting guard, Bronny only shot 26.7 percent from three, making 16 total three-pointers in 25 games. There's clearly a lot more development that needs to be done. Expect Bronny to fall into the second round, with teams that have more than one pick in the second day the most likely to take a chance on his upside. The Indiana Pacers have the most selections (three), currently projected for Nos. 36, 51 and 52 overall. Despite recently clinching a spot in the East play-in tournament, it seems inevitable that the Atlanta Hawks are headed for a massive shake-up. The experiment to bring in Dejounte Murray in a two-point guard lineup alongside Trae Murray has been a failure. While both are All-Stars individually, the team has been better with only one on the floor at a time, according to Cleaning the Glass. While Young is the more talented of the two, he'd also fetch a far greater return in a trade. Atlanta should ask for nothing less than three first-round picks and/or some high-level young talent for its 25-year-old point guard. Murray has also played well in a leading role. Since Young was sidelined following hand surgery, Murray has averaged 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.8 steals and is shooting 37.3 percent from three while leading Atlanta to a 12-9 record. Atlanta's defense has improved considerably with Young out as well. Whether it be to the
Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, San Antonio Spurs or a surprise team that emerges, expect the Hawks to move Young this summer and reset the roster around Murray. The LeBron James retirement watch is officially on as the four-time MVP himself has openly talked about his time in the league coming to an end . While we don't have an official date, The Athletic's Shams Charania reported that "one to two more years" is the expectation for James' remaining career according to those he's talked to around the league. James will turn 40 on December 30. James holds a $51.4 million player option for next season, meaning it's up to him whether he wishes to join the free-agent market or not. If James wants to compete for a championship and make this kind of money, the Lakers or the Philadelphia 76ers look like the only realistic options for now. Still, for someone who has spoken openly about wanting to own an NBA team one day, don't be surprised if James looks to cash in one last time, especially since we don't know when or if Bronny James will enter the league. James is eligible to sign a three-year, $162 million contract to stay with the Lakers if he doesn't opt into his player option. The three years is the maximum length allowed due to the over-38 rule. If James wants this deal, can the Lakers really say no? The four-time champion has played in 67 of L.A.'s 77 games this season, averaging 25.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 1.2 steals and is shooting a career-high 41.6 percent from three. He was an All-Star for the 20th straight season and looks like a lock for an All-NBA team. If James leaves in free agency, he'll take the Lakers' title hopes with him. After Anthony Davis signed a three-year, $177 max extension with Los Angeles last summer, expect James to sign his own max deal with a player option at the end.