When Simon Clarke called for Rishi Sunak to go at the beginning of the year, it failed to take off. The most helpful intervention was Dame Priti Patel ’s. The former home secretary is not a close Sunak ally yet she rowed in behind the Prime Minister, taking to
Social Media to accuse Clarke of “engaging in facile and divisive self-indulgence”. But in a week where polls suggest the party is on course for a wipeout, Tory MPs are once again indulging in questioning who is best placed to lead the Tory party. The time to change leader is still viewed as more likely than not after the general election. But the party is braced for – in the words of one member of Tory staff – a “mental May” with the local
elections marking a danger point. As one government aide puts it: “Logic would state that Rishi stays in place but never underestimate the madness of Tory MPs.” But whenever the date comes for a leadership contest, there is now a new front-runner being talked of: Patel. It wasn’t so long ago that she was talked of as a politician of the past. Since resigning as home secretary, aware that Liz Truss planned to put Suella Braverman in her place, she has remained on the back bench intervening on policy issues she cares about. But now her time out of Government is starting to look quite attractive to MPs. With MPs fearing that Sunak’s Government has entered a doom loop, those seen to be too closely involved with the project could have that marked against them in a future contest. At the same time, those who are viewed to have been a little too disruptive could be blamed for playing their own role in the dreadful polling. “What comes up the most in focus groups as the reason voters don’t want to vote Tory is the infighting and psychodrama,” says a government aide. It means loud critics such as Braverman and Robert Jenrick could struggle to win support from the centre. It also means that Patel’s skills are being reassessed. Read Next Priti Patel is emerging as the 'secret' Tory leadership frontrunner As one Tory figure puts it: “She is the secret front-runner. She is loyal to Boris [Johnson] and Liz and she hasn’t criticised Sunak.” While Patel and Truss were not seen as particularly close when Truss was in No 10, allies of the duo say they have grown closer since. There were reports this week that Patel is now the preferred candidate of PopCon, the Tory outfit that Truss helped launch this year to push for free market conservatism, in a post-election leadership contest. However, Patel’s appeal goes beyond this group – which is why the idea is now being talked about more seriously in Tory circles. The former home secretary remains a close ally of Johnson. It means Johnson loyalists rate her. She also has the plus point of being one of the MPs who, according to recent MRP polls, could hold on to their seats at the next
election – even if her Essex constituency would become a marginal. Patel is often criticised for suggesting that the death penalty could be a deterrent. But in the years since she said that, a deputy chair (now in Reform) said he supported it and the party has moved to the right generally. It means even some in the One Nation group are reassessing her. “She’s not my first choice but I’d take her over Suella,” one said. As another puts it: “I think Kemi [Badenoch] is the obvious favourite right now but she might blow herself up in the campaign as she can be quite blunt.” Patel could also make the experience argument. Experience will be of a particular need in the next parliament. Even if
Labour only won a small majority, it would still mark the biggest change in the party since the Second World War. It means while there might be a temptation for a completely fresh face, there will be an argument for a steady pair of hands to steer the ship – or whatever is left of it.