Russian
elections suffer from the fact that the results are known before the polling booths open. And for the past two decades – and the foreseeable future – that result is that
Vladimir Putin wins. That’s not to say this
election is inconsequential.
Russian watchers think Putin still craves a veneer of legitimacy. More than ever, Putin’s
Russia relies on the population pretending it has civil rights and that its country is not a mafia kleptocracy. Everyone in Russia, from Siberia to St Petersburg, has been aware of the “2024 problem”. For much of the past decade, given that the Russian president would no longer be eligible for re-election in 2024, it was assumed he would have to choose a successor. However, in 2020, Putin the dictator changed the constitution, which conveniently allowed him to write off his previous terms in office, and run for his first term again this weekend. As such he can remain president until 2036 – when he would be 83 years old. Nonetheless, a rigged election in a country the size of Russia takes some organisation. Ahead of the vote, any candidates who might excite the electorate are barred or persuaded to stand down. Pensioners, veterans and families are placated with promises of handouts. And according to Russian political scientist Vera Ageeva, at Sciences Po University in
Paris, officials will by now have set up a nationwide vote-rigging network. Local electoral commissions ensure each ballot station fakes participation and vote counts for Putin. Read Next Russians set out to 'destroy Putin's propaganda myth' in sham election “It’s not an easy task and demands the mobilisation of local authorities to be ready to participate in the fraud,” she says. “For 95 per cent of polling stations it goes well. “In recent years they have eliminated all independent observers and have introduced elaborate new rules which help them to make fraud less evident and visible. “Having three days of voting, having state functionaries, including teachers at school being encouraged to vote on a Friday, the use of electronic vote, etc, help them manipulate the outcome.” One fly in the ointment for Putin might be
protests . His
police state is now so pervasive and brutal that no one expects pro-democracy demonstrators to threaten the outcome. But given the thousands of brave men and
Women who risked persecution for mourning the death of famed dissident Alexei Navalny last month, the regime knows it is loathed by many Russians. At least 27,000 people came to say farewell to Navalny at Borisovsky cemetery on the outskirts of
Moscow, according to the independent Russian news outlet Mediazona . On Friday morning, there were reports of Russian voters spoiling their ballots with red ink – signifying blood and their opposition to the war in
Ukraine. Navalny’s widow Yulia Navalnaya has called on western countries not to recognise the legitimacy of a new Putin presidency. Although if Western governments did that, how would they logically recognise the right of
Xi Jinping, or any number of other dictators, to represent their countries? Navalnaya is also calling on voters to turn up at polling stations en masse at 12pm on Sunday and vote against Putin or spoil their ballots. This “Noon Against Putin” event aims to honour Navalny’s last wishes, while illustrating the high number of voters who are against Russia’s war on Ukraine. By voting en masse at noon on Sunday, the
protesters will be engaging in legitimate activity while also registering their opposition to Putin. Novaya Gazeta , the independent Russian newspaper, has called the protest action “Navalny’s will”. Ageeva thinks that although thousands may join in the protest, media coverage of local polling stations will be scant. “So it might not be possible to see the tens of thousands who participate,” she says. She adds that Russia authorities are likely to react harshly to overt demonstrations of opposition to the regime. When, inevitably on Monday, the rigged vote is done and dusted, Putin may choose to shuffle his inner circle. The most important question surrounding the election is not who is going to be the president, but rather who is going to become the prime minister, Mikhail Zygar , founding editor of Russia’s only independent news television channel, Dozhd (TVRain) writes in an article for the Atlantic Council website . “Once he is elected president for a new term, Putin will have an excuse to dismiss the government and form a new one,” he says. The role of Russian prime minister, currently held by Mikhail Mishustin, is second in command – and the one who takes over if anything happens to Putin. “This ritual is a political watershed that will determine the landscape in Russia for years to come—and possibly what Russia will look like after Putin finally passes from the scene,” says Zygar. Writing in Foreign Affairs , Russia experts Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman suggest that even when Putin does exit the scene, the nature of his regime means his eventual successor will operate in a similar vein – to ensure his/her survival. “They would keep their grip on the powers lodged in the
MILITARY and the security services. They would not want to see internal strife imperil Russia’s geopolitical position, and they would not want to give up the ideological constructs Putin has assembled,” they write. “This raises the sobering possibility that forever Putinism, which now revolves around a single man, could outlast the tenure of Putin himself.” And that rigged Russian elections are here to stay.